Saka made headlines by grabbing that third goal in the 3-1 win over the Saints. Many might have missed that the 23-year-old set up his side’s other two goals to take his assists tally for the season to seven.
Odds courtesy of BetWinner. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Saka’s Steady Development To Premier League’s Elite
Since making his Premier League debut on January 1st 2019, Saka’s development has been remarkably consistent. Just in terms of output, Saka has improved on his goal tally with each passing season, from four in all competitions in 2019/20 to the 20 he grabbed last campaign.
However, while his finishing has improved, Saka’s best attribute is perhaps his chance creation. Saka was producing 1.2 key passes per 90 minutes in the Premier League in 2020/21. That figure rose to 2.6 last campaign. After seven appearances this season, it is up to 3.9.
Saka has produced 11 goal creating actions this season, which is four more than any other player. This goes beyond just high-quality finishing. Saka has produced 51 chance creating actions so far this campaign, 12 more than Cole Palmer and Andreas Pereira in joint-2nd.
The majority of these chances have come from open play, but we cannot ignore Arsenal’s not-so-secret weapon under Mikel Arteta: set pieces. The Gunners have generated 3.57 xG from non-penalty set pieces this season - the highest in the league.
Arsenal’s effectiveness from set pieces is no secret, but one of the main reasons behind this is the quality of the delivery from both sides. The Gunners only employ inswinging deliveries, so every corner from the right hand side will come from Saka’s left foot.
No player has completed more inswinging corners than Saka’s 22 this campaign. He’s joint-top with Lewis Cook and in 3rd spot is Declan Rice, the man who takes Arsenal’s inswinging corners from the left.
Two of Saka’s seven assists in the Premier League this season came from set pieces. Both were whipped onto the head of defender Gabriel Magalhaes, who did the rest in away games at Tottenham and Manchester City.
On Course for A Premier League Record
Saka has very nearly broken one long-standing Premier League record already this season. The 23-year-old grabbed an assist in each of his first five Premier League appearances. He very nearly notched up assists in six consecutive Premier League appearances - something that no player has done before - but for Arsenal’s third goal in the 4-2 win over Leicester to be retroactively awarded as an own goal.
However, Saka may well have his sights set on another long-standing record. The record for most assists in a Premier League season stands at 20. Thierry Henry set the bar of 20 in the 2002/03 season. That feat was matched by Kevin De Bruyne in the 2019/20 campaign. In those respective seasons, Kevin De Bruyne had notched up eight assists after seven matches while Henry had just four.
What stands out for Bukayo Saka has been the quality of Arsenal’s opposition so far. In that 2019/20 season, De Bruyne was part of a City side that put five goals past West Ham, four past Brighton and beat Watford 8-0 at the Etihad. They scored 29 goals in those opening eight matches.
In comparison, Arsenal have navigated a difficult fixture list with away games at Manchester City, Tottenham and Aston Villa. They’ve scored just 15 goals - of which Saka assisted seven and scored another two. Upcoming fixtures will offer the 23-year-old more opportunities to add to that tally.
Will Saka need 20 for this bet to land? Not at all. Ollie Watkins had the most assists in the Premier League last season with just 13 - two clear of Cole Palmer’s 11. De Bruyne had it the year before with 16, four clear of Mohamed Salah’s 12 in 2nd.
In the last 10 seasons, the Premier League player with the most assists in each season finished with an average total of 16.2. But of course, Saka wouldn’t have to beat the player in 1st, he’d only have to better the one in 2nd. That figure drops to just 12.8 assists. 14 assists would have been enough to beat the player in 2nd in 8 of the last 10 seasons and Saka is already halfway there.
This bet looks very good at the odds quoted below. Saka is currently top of the Premier League rankings for expected assists, chances created and is 3rd for chances created in open play. He’s not a rotation risk - the winger has played in 122 of Arsenal’s last 125 Premier League matches. He’s on course for a record-breaking campaign and is worth backing in this market.