Real Madrid are heading into a busy period in their season, and rumors of unhappiness within the team are increasing...
| Real Madrid Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Girona vs Real Madrid - Over 3.5 goals | 2.01 |
| Real Madrid to beat Athletic Club | 1.79 |
| Real Madrid to score over 2.5 goals vs Celta Vigo | 1.94 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Vinicius joins a long list of angry Galacticos
Vinicius emerged as a strong Ballon d’Or candidate during Real Madrid’s successful 2023/24 season. He registered 30 goal contributions in 36 matches across league and European football. However, the Brazilian has been under pressure since then.
His performance level has dipped since Kylian Mbappe arrived in the summer of 2024. Reports suggested that Vinicius was growing unhappy with having a secondary role to the Frenchman.
With his current deal only running until 2027, contract negotiations had already stopped even before Xabi Alonso was appointed. However, Vinicius' situation has significantly worsened since the Basque coach’s arrival.
Real Madrid top La Liga and have won 74% of their matches under Alonso overall. Despite that, they’ve rarely performed convincingly in important games.
Vinicius and Mbappe are still not playing effectively together, so the Brazilian’s importance has decreased. The team is now clearly built around the Frenchman. As a result, Vinicius has been left competing with Rodrygo for a starting role on the left flank.
The 25-year-old has only played the full 90 minutes six times in 23 appearances for Los Blancos since Alonso’s arrival. He has reacted angrily twice to being substituted, most notably in El Clasico. While he issued an apology after that, it notably failed to include his coach.
The latest reports suggest that Vinicius has told Real Madrid he won’t sign a new contract under the current circumstances. This is not uncommon at the Bernabeu. Even legends such as Cristiano Ronaldo and Sergio Ramos have fallen out with the club over contract negotiations.
One of Real Madrid’s great strengths is their ability to quickly recover from any problem. No player has ever been considered as irreplaceable. Ronaldo was perhaps the closest to that, but they’ve still won two Champions League titles since his departure in 2018.
Business as usual at the Bernabeu?
While Real Madrid’s form has dipped in recent weeks, the situation with Vinicius is unlikely the direct cause.
In some ways, this conflict could actually motivate an underperforming player. He will feel he needs to prove his value to both his current coach and any potentially interested clubs. It’s worth noting that the likes of Mbappe, Robert Lewandowski, and Trent Alexander-Arnold have performed well towards the end of their contracts recently.
The fact that this is a World Cup year should also ensure that Vinicius remains focused. Alonso chose to rest him last weekend against Elche. However, he’s still clearly ahead of compatriots Rodrygo and Endrick in the selection hierarchy at Madrid.
With a busy schedule ahead, Vinicius may continue to be rotated out of some games. Real won seven out of eight La Liga matches last season without him. They’ve also won three of their four games this term when he’s only been a substitute.
It should be business as usual for Los Blancos over the next few weeks. Alonso has more urgent concerns, as he will need to deal with several defensive selection issues. Also, they have injury concerns over four centre-backs heading into what is expected to be a high-scoring clash with Girona.
Real Madrid then travel to Bilbao in midweek. Their only defeat without Vinicius in La Liga last season came against Athletic at San Mames. However, the fixture should be easier this term, as Athletic seem very unconvincing.
The Basques have only won three of their last 15 matches across all competitions. Backing Real to win with an implied probability of 55.6% seems to offer value.
They then host Celta Vigo at the Bernabeu. Los Blancos have scored 19 goals in their last five home games against the Galician side. They are likely to score over 2.5 goals in that fixture with an implied probability of 54.5%.