Best bets for Portugal vs Spain
- Spain to win at odds of 1.90 with Betway
- Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with Betway
- Spain to win (1st half) at odds of 2.40 with Betway
Spain will shatter Cristiano Ronaldo’s dream with a 2-0 win at the Allianz Arena.
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
Arch-rivals Portugal and Spain meet again in Sunday evening’s Nations League final in Munich. The Portuguese haven’t beaten Spain in a major competition since 2004, so they will be keen to make up for lost time.
Roberto Martinez, who is a Spaniard himself, has masterminded Portugal’s run to the final. His second-half tweaks against Germany in the last four turned the tide in Portugal’s favour, with Cristiano Ronaldo once again emerging as the likely hero.
Portugal went unbeaten in their Nations League group campaign, securing notable wins over Croatia and Poland. They also hammered Denmark 5-2 in the second leg of their quarter-final tie. Their starting XI ranks among the best in Europe right now.
Spain enjoyed a similarly straightforward passage into the knockout stages of the Nations League. They only narrowly edged out the Netherlands in the last eight, ultimately relying on a penalty shootout to decide their fate.
However, Luis de la Fuente’s men were at their very best in the last four against France. They blew Les Bleus away in the opening hour, with the likes of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams in destructive form.
Probable lineups for Portugal vs Spain
Portugal Expected Lineup: Costa; Neves, Mendes, Dias, Inacio, Silva, Neves, Fernandes, Trincao, Neto, Ronaldo
Spain Expected Lineup: Simon; Porro, Cucurella, Le Normand, Huijsen, Zubimendi, Merino, Pedri, Williams, Yamal, Oyarzabal
Backing La Roja’s young talent to outdo Portugal
Spain were by far the standout side in the Nations League semi-finals. They stormed into a 4-0 and 5-1 lead in their last four encounters with France. Although Les Bleus fought back late on, the damage had already been done by 17-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal and speedster Nico Williams.
La Roja are no strangers to playing on the biggest stage. They are the defending champions of the Nations League, as well as the defending European champions. It’s simply impossible to ignore their star qualities.
At a probability of 54.05% to beat Portugal, we believe this is a fair price to back. Portugal’s last victory over Spain in a major competition came with their 1-0 win at Euro 2004. A lot has changed since then - the Spaniards have won five major trophies in the last two decades.
- Portugal vs Spain Bet 1: Spain to win at odds of 1.90 with Betway
All-Iberian clashes tend to be low-scoring
After Spain’s thrilling 5-4 win over France in the last four, you might assume backing the Overs market on Sunday is a no-brainer. However, the head-to-head data suggests otherwise.
Five of the last six meetings between the rival nations have seen two goals or fewer. Only three goals have been scored during their last four meetings.
There’s a lot on the line in Sunday’s contest, so we expect the older, more streetwise Portuguese side to try and stifle the Spaniards in Munich. The betting markets believe there’s only a 47.62% chance of under 2.5 goals. This is the biggest value bet among our Portugal vs Spain predictions, as we believe the probability is closer to the 60% mark.
- Portugal vs Spain Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.20 with Betway
Spain to take the lead by halftime
As the clear favourites for Sunday night’s Nations League final, it’s important to look at the current trends surrounding de la Fuente’s Spain. Firstly, they’ve scored first in their last eight competitive games.
Interestingly, they’ve also led at half-time in five of their last six competitive games. This suggests La Roja are primed to start fast and take control of games from the outset.
Despite this, the betting markets assign just a 41.67% chance of Spain winning the first half of Sunday’s game. Given that La Roja have led in 83.33% of their last six games at the interval, this is also a great value bet.
- Portugal vs Spain Bet 3: Spain to win (1st half) at odds of 2.40 with Betway