After City scored double figures in their FA Cup win over Exeter, Pep Guardiola’s men travel to Tyneside confident of more cup success.
Best bets for Newcastle United vs Manchester City
- Man City to Win at odds of 2.14 withBetway
- Man City (1st goal) at odds of 1.74 withBetway
- Antoine Semenyo Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.20 withBetway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Newcastle 1-2 Manchester City
- Goalscorers prediction - Newcastle: Wissa - Man City: Semenyo, Haaland
The Magpies enter this fixture following a demanding FA Cup third-round tie against Bournemouth, which required extra time and a penalty shootout to resolve. Eddie Howe’s men may suffer from the effects of that 120-minute struggle. This is because key players such as Nick Woltemade, Harvey Barnes, and Sandro Tonali played the entire match.
Newcastle’s general form has improved lately, as they’ve won their last three Premier League games. They haven’t been defeated at St James’ Park since September, with their home fans still the bedrock of their success. Howe faces a new concern over Tino Livramento's fitness, who was forced off with a knock.
In contrast, City enjoyed a much easier weekend. Pep Guardiola fielded a very strong starting lineup to face League One strugglers Exeter City. They easily dominated the Grecians 10-1 at the Etihad Stadium, conceding a late consolation goal in stoppage time.
City drew their last three EPL games, a run that has frustrated Guardiola. His selection of a full-strength team this weekend highlighted his desire to see them recover some form and winning momentum.
Probable lineups for Newcastle vs Manchester City
Newcastle United expected lineup: Ramsdale, Hall, Thiaw, Botman, Miley; Tonali, Guimaraes; Gordon, Barnes, Woltemade, Wissa
Manchester City expected lineup: Trafford, O’Reilly, Khusanov, Alleyne, Nunes, Gonzalez, Cherki, Foden, Reijnders, Semenyo, Haaland
City seek a vital first-leg lead
Although the Magpies have won 11 of their last 13 home games across all competitions, Pep’s men are likely to get the job done. The combination of Newcastle’s exhaustion and their growing injury list presents a significant challenge.
By contrast, Guardiola was able to make three halftime changes against Exeter. Erling Haaland played only in the first half before being replaced by Mukasa. Meanwhile, Antoine Semenyo played just over an hour and should be fit to play on Tuesday.
Moreover, the Magpies haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last five meetings with City. They have also conceded six goals in their last two home games, which will concern Eddie Howe. That is why backing City to win at a probability of 46.51% seems like a smart bet.
- Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 1: Man City to Win at odds of 2.14 with Betway
Strong start expected from the visitors
Manchester City’s recent record against the Magpies and their recent form against other EPL sides suggest they find the net first. They’ve done so in eight of their last ten competitive meetings with Newcastle and seven in their last eight games across all competitions.
Although Newcastle will have home advantage, their FA Cup exploits at the weekend have likely exhausted them. City eased past their League One opposition, so they will be fresher and have the luxury of rotating players.
City scored first in 80% of their last ten games against Newcastle, they appear highly likely to do so again this Tuesday. However, the betting markets suggest that the visitors have only a 56.50% chance of opening the scoring. This is underpriced based on City’s weekend goalfest and Newcastle’s fresh fitness concerns.
- Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 2: Man City (1st goal) at odds of 1.74 with Betway
Value on Semenyo to bag in back-to-back games
With 13 goal contributions in 20 appearances for AFC Bournemouth this season, Antoine Semenyo is in top form. It’s unsurprising that his figures caught the eye of Manchester City, who secured his signature by triggering his release clause with the Cherries.
Semenyo made an immediate impact on his debut for City. He played the first 64 minutes of City’s 10-1 win over Exeter, recording one goal and one assist.
However, the betting markets suggest he has only a 37.04% chance of finding the net at St James’ Park on Tuesday. Semenyo’s performance against Exeter means Guardiola has a tough task in deciding whether to start Semenyo or Jeremy Doku. Semenyo has recorded a strike rate of 71.43% for goal contributions so far in 2025/26. Backing him to score at almost half that percentage is the value play from our trio of Newcastle vs Man City predictions.
- Newcastle vs Manchester City Bet 3: Antoine Semenyo Anytime goalscorer at odds of 3.20 with Betway