Our betting expert expects a tough meeting between two high-flying teams. Milan should edge it to book a spot in the final.
Best bets for Napoli vs AC Milan
- BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.93 on Betwinner
- 1x2 - AC Milan at odds of 2.65 on Betwinner
- Anytime goalscorer - Christian Pulisic at odds of 3.45 on Betwinner
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Napoli 1-2 AC Milan
- Goalscorers prediction: Napoli: Rasmus Hojlund, AC Milan: Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao
Two sides locked in a tight Serie A title face off in the Supercoppa Italiana semi-finals this week. This fixture pits the Scudetto holders against the runners-up from the Coppa Italia last season.
Napoli have hit another mini slump in their quest to retain the league title this season. Gli Azzurri are a point behind AC Milan in Serie A after a 1-0 defeat away to Udinese last weekend.
This leaves Antonio Conte’s men two points adrift of leaders Inter Milan, still within touching distance. There’s no home ground advantage for Napoli in this one. Both semi-finals are taking place at the King Saud University Stadium in Riyadh.
AC Milan will welcome the neutral setting. The Rossoneri have been in good form as well, but they dropped points in a 2-2 draw at home with Sassuolo last week.
Massimiliano Allegri’s men are unbeaten in their last 14 league matches. There’s an even split between home and away fixtures. After missing out on silverware last season, Milan will be determined to get over the line here and compete for the Super Cup.
Probable lineups for Napoli vs AC Milan
Napoli expected lineup: Milinkovic-Savic, Beukema, Rrahmani, Buongiorno, Di Lorenzo, McTominay, Elmas, Spinazzola, Neres, Lang, Hojlund
AC Milan expected lineup: Maignan, Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlovic, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Modric, Rabiot, Bartesaghi, Pulisic, Leao
Level on all fronts
Both teams have posted similar scoring records in Serie A this term. Napoli have netted 22 goals in 15 games, averaging 1.47 goals per match. Milan scored two more than their opponents (24), an average of 1.60 goals per game.
Only Inter (34) have scored more than both teams, while Bologna (23) netted one more than Napoli this season. Defensively, they’re exactly the same. They’ve conceded 13 goals in 15 league matches. That’s exactly the record you’d expect from sides managed by Conte and Allegri.
While they’re both strong at the back, they’re almost equally as strong in the final third. Milan have seen 53% of all their games produce goals on both sides. Napoli have seen 47% of their matches end with the same result.
However, both of the Rossoneri’s last two outings and two of Napoli’s last four saw both teams score on the day. Additionally, three of the last four head-to-heads produced goals for both teams.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Betting Tip 1: BTTS - Yes at odds of 1.89 on Betwinner
Milan have the upper hand
With the game taking place in Riyadh, there is no home advantage for either team. That could work in favour of Milan, who are still unbeaten away from home in Serie A. Napoli have been poor on their travels. They’ve lost four of their eight away league matches.
Conte’s men are winless in their two most recent outings. They’ve suffered defeats in the league and the Champions League. That casts some doubt over whether they can overcome Milan in this knockout fixture.
History suggests this fixture can go either way. The last four meetings have been split evenly into victories for either side. Their most recent clash took place in September in Serie A when AC Milan came out with a 2-1 victory. This is a likely scenario in this one.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Betting Tip 2:1x2 - AC Milan at odds of 2.67 on Betwinner
Pulisic proves a threat away from home
Christian Pulisic has been Milan’s star player this season. The American forward has netted seven league goals. This has earned him the title of the club’s highest goalscorer for the season. His goals account for 29% of the team’s total in Serie A this term.
While he didn’t score last time out, he scored a brace in a 25-minute cameo away to Torino. That’s how he secured a 3-2 victory for the Rossoneri. Three goals in his last four appearances indicate he is in fine form.
The interesting fact about Pulisic’s goals is that six of his seven in the league have all come on the road. He’s not fazed by playing on foreign soil and is poised to deliver for Milan in this match.
- Napoli vs AC Milan Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Christian Pulisic at odds of 3.25 on Betwinner