How to bet on Real Madrid following Xabi Alonso’s exit

Alvaro Arbeloa has been promoted from his previous role as B-team boss. He expects to win his first few games in charge.

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What’s next for Real Madrid and Alonso?

Real Madrid appointed Alonso last summer in a bid to improve on a dismal 2024/25 season. The ex-Bayer Leverkusen boss arrived with a reputation as an innovative, modern tactician. That set him apart from most coaches in recent times at the Santiago Bernabeu.

The likes of Zinedine Zidane and Carlo Ancelotti were known for their ability to manage players and earn the respect of the dressing room. The hope was that Alonso could do that, while also solving many of the tactical flaws in a misfiring squad.

Despite leaving with a healthy 71% win ratio, the Basque coach ultimately fell short on both fronts. Many of his 24 victories were unconvincing, often sealed only thanks to the individual brilliance of Kylian Mbappe. Tensions with senior players, including an underperforming Vinicius Junior, also contributed to his departure. 

Real Madrid wasted no time in appointing another former Liverpool player as Alonso’s replacement. Arbeloa has already taken charge and will lead the side in upcoming matches against Albacete, Levante and Monaco.

Arbeloa enjoys a strong reputation at the club, succeeding Raul as Castilla boss in the summer. He has since guided the reserve side to fourth place in Spain’s third tier. While still something of an unknown quantity, he is believed to favour an attacking style.

As for Alonso, he’s set to take a break from football over the coming months. His reputation is unlikely to have taken a huge knock, despite an underwhelming time in Madrid. The 44-year-old will be in the frame for major managerial roles in 2026 and beyond.

On many levels, his natural next step would be a move to his former club Liverpool. The Reds were keen to appoint Alonso in 2024. They would likely pursue him again if Arne Slot were ever replaced. 

Can Arbeloa repeat Zidane's heroics?

Alonso’s sacking bears similarities to Rafa Benitez’s exit in January 2016. The club also turned to their B-team boss on that occasion. Zinedine Zidane took charge and led the side to Champions League glory. He replicated the feat over the next two seasons.

Arbeloa inherits a weaker, or at least less balanced, squad than Zidane did. There are defensive flaws, and the lack of a ball-playing midfielder is a major issue.

In addition, Alonso and Ancelotti each failed to get the best out of both Vinicius and Mbappe. Doubts remain over whether the key attacking duo can thrive in the same team.

Those problems suggest Real Madrid will not win the Champions League this season. Edging out Barcelona in La Liga will also be a tough task, with the Catalans currently four points clear. However, the change may have a positive impact in the short term.

The public perception is that a powerful dressing room has effectively forced Alonso out. Those stars will therefore be motivated to perform well in the upcoming games. The Bernabeu has already turned on Vinicius, and he’ll be among the players eager to prove a point.

With Rodrygo’s form improving, and Gonzalo Garcia scoring four in his last three games, attacking options are plentiful. That should stand them in good stead away to second-tier Albacete in the Copa del Rey this week.

Their opponents have conceded 1.62 goals per game in the league this term. That’s the joint second-worst record in the Segunda Division. It suggests Los Blancos are worth backing to score over 2.5 goals in their first game under Arbeloa.

With Mbappe expected to be fit, Los Blancos should put La Liga strugglers Levante to the sword at the Bernabeu. The Valencia-based side have conceded 1.67 goals per 90 minutes in the Spanish top flight, the second-worst record.

Real Madrid secured a 5-1 victory over a relatively strong Real Betis side in their only home match so far in 2026. A similar outcome is certainly possible against Levante. Backing the hosts to win the match with over 3.5 goals could be the smart play.

Monaco then visit the Champions League. The Ligue 1 outfit haven’t been in great form, with five defeats in their last 10 matches. That suggests it’ll be another comfortable evening for Real Madrid. Arbeloa should benefit from a favourable run of opening fixtures.

There is reason to think Monaco can score at the Bernabeu, however. They’ve netted in all but one of their Champions League matches this term, creating at least 1.3 xG in every game. A bet on Real Madrid to win and both teams to score seems promising for next Tuesday.