Will Gimenez Improve Milan’s 1.5 Goal Average To Secure Top 4 Finish?

With the Serie A transfer window closed, which teams have made the necessary improvements to challenge for honours in the second half of the season?

After the January transfer window closed on Monday night, Serie A clubs can no longer register new recruits, except for free agents.

The burning question for Serie A bettors is which teams came out of the transfer window stronger than they were in December.

Some of the biggest headlines in Serie A focused more on significant departures rather than arrivals. Napoli’s in-form Georgian winger, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, was the most expensive departure, with PSG paying €70m to sign him. Has this weakened Napoli’s chances of winning the Scudetto this season?

Milan were one of the most active teams in the January transfer window, bringing in six new players. These include Manchester City and England’s full back, Kyle Walker and Feyenoord’s Santiago Gimenez. The latter was the most expensive Serie A signing in the transfer window, joining the Rossoneri for €35m.

Have Milan Rejuvenated Their Hopes of a Top 4 Finish?

As February begins, Milan are seven points behind fourth-placed Lazio. Despite this, there is genuine positivity surrounding the Rossoneri following their January transfer activity.

That’s because their new signings come at a time when most of the teams above them are experiencing a dip in form. Atalanta, Lazio, Juventus and Fiorentina are all operating below their season points-per-game (PPG) average. Lazio’s PPG average over the last eight games is just 1.38, while Fiorentina’s is even lower at 1.00.

In contrast, Milan’s eight-game PPG average sits at 1.63, which means they should be able to close the gap on both sides, provided their new recruits quickly find their form.

Milan’s attacking output has been inferior to all of the sides above them. Despite having the same goal difference as fourth-placed Lazio, the Rome-based club have scored seven more goals this season. To address this, Milan have brought in 23-year-old Mexican forward, Santiago Gimenez, from Dutch side Feyenoord.

Gimenez has been in outstanding form this season, averaging a goal per game in the UEFA Champions League this season. He has also notched seven goals in 11 Eredivisie games for Feyenoord in 2024/25.

Milan’s current forward, Tammy Abraham, has averaged 2.07 shots per 90 and 0.98 shots on target per 90 this season. In contrast, Gimenez has averaged 3.29 shots per 90 and 1.76 shots on target per 90 for Feyenoord, so Milan hope he can make a strong start.

Portuguese wide forward, Joao Felix, has also joined Milan on loan from Chelsea to further increase Milan’s attacking options. Milan are currently priced at 5.00 as the sixth favourites for a top-four finish in Serie A. This seems like an appealing price considering the rebuild of their forward line. They will aim to close the gap on Lazio and hope draw specialists Juventus continue to regularly drop points.

Is Kvaratskhelia’s Napoli Exit Great News for Inter’s Odds to Win the Scudetto?

Napoli’s talented Georgian wizard, Kvicha Kvaratskhelia, was nicknamed “Kvaradona” by the Napoli fans. This reflected the high regard in which the 23-year-old was held. This is not surprising, given his impressive 28 goals in 85 Serie A appearances since being brought in from the relative obscurity of Dinamo Batumi in Georgia’s Erovnuli Liga.

However, Kvaratskhelia made the move to Paris Saint-Germain, who were able to offer a significantly better salary than the €1.8m-a-year salary the Georgian was earning at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. Kvaratskhelia’s departure, coupled with the underwhelming loan signing of Noah Okafor from Milan, has reportedly left Conte frustrated.

In many ways, Inter’s odds of winning the Serie A this year have improved despite their inactivity in the January window. Napoli have lost their star man, who was in Serie A’s 96th percentile for shots at goal, the 84th percentile for shot-creating actions and the 90th percentile for progressive carries. He was the Partenopei’s primary point of difference.

Inter’s strength is likely to be their stability. Simone Inzaghi has faith in the core of his squad. Their sole January loan signing, Nicola Zalewski, has already proved he can step up in crucial moments by creating the equaliser in the Milan derby. Inter have lost just once in Serie A this season and sit three points behind Napoli with a game in hand.

Inzaghi’s side have gradually become the favourites for the 2024/25 Scudetto and are priced at 1.80 ahead of Napoli at 2.40. If Inter can navigate through an upcoming double-header against sixth-placed Fiorentina and fifth-placed Juventus, they’ll be in excellent form to face Napoli in their six-pointer in early March.