The domestic leagues return this weekend, followed by another round of European matches, and fatigue could become an important factor soon.
| Asian Handicap Markets | Odds |
| Everton draw no bet vs Newcastle | 2.00 |
| Brighton draw no bet vs Nottingham Forest | 1.75 |
| Alaves +2.00 handicap vs Barcelona | 2.05 |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
No rest for the continent’s top stars
This latest international break has been particularly exhausting for many players. With World Cup qualifying in Europe concluded, many groups remained competitive until the very end. Only nine teams secured their spot in the World Cup on the final matchday.
Many international bosses had to field their best players. Therefore, many of the continent’s key players had little time to rest during this break.
Fatigue could become a major factor again following another round of European fixtures next week. Some teams that are not in continental action could take advantage of that, particularly in a competitive Premier League.
With their EFL Cup title defence also active, Newcastle have already played 17 matches this season. A gruelling schedule will see them return from the break with four challenging games in 11 days. They host Man City and Tottenham, and play away at Marseille and Everton.
Clubs that occupy weaker positions in Europe could be especially vulnerable in some of their upcoming league fixtures. That includes Nottingham Forest, who have won only one of their four Europa League games so far. Therefore, Sean Dyche may need to field strong lineups in the upcoming UEL fixtures against Malmo and Utrecht.
Barcelona are another side that cannot afford to take too many risks in Europe. They are outside the top eight in the Champions League, following a defeat to PSG and a 3-3 draw against Club Brugge. They face a challenging away match against Chelsea next week. The Blues’ players, who are suffering from many injuries, could soon be pushed to their limits again.
Is it worth betting against the clubs in Europe?
Most club managers will likely field their strongest players where possible this weekend. However, it won’t be long before they need to consider resting players again. The stronger teams, who aren’t involved in European competitions, could soon be at a real advantage in the domestic leagues.
Newcastle are currently only 14th in the English top flight. The enormous amount of depth in the Premier League this term is evident. The likes of Everton, Brentford, Brighton, and Bournemouth could continue to thrive in the following period, as they have no European distractions.
Everton have adapted well to their new stadium. They’ve only lost one of their seven matches across all competitions in their new home. The Toffees host Newcastle on the final weekend of this month, and they appear to offer value in that match.
That’s partly a result of Newcastle’s tough schedule, but also the Magpies’ poor away record. Eddie Howe’s side are yet to win an away match in the Premier League this season. So, backing Everton could be the best bet.
Additionally, Brighton are at value against Nottingham Forest on the same weekend. The Seagulls have only lost one of their last seven league games. Meanwhile, Forest have lost three of their four Premier League matches immediately after Europa League fixtures.
Even Barcelona, despite their injuries, could be vulnerable to fatigue and a drop in performance due to playing in La Liga. They entertain Alaves in between upcoming matches against Chelsea and Atletico Madrid over a tough eight-day period. Flick may have little choice but to rest players against the Basque side.
Alaves have only let in 0.92 goals per game this season in La Liga. They seem to offer value with a handicap in that match.