Copa del Rey winner odds: Value beyond the big three

The last seven years have featured six different Copa del Rey winners, but the big three Spanish clubs currently dominate the outright winner market.

Odds courtesy of 1xBet. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Barcelona

With 32 wins overall, Barcelona have been more successful in this competition than any other club. Much of their success is recent, as they’ve won eight titles since Pep Guardiola’s first season as coach in 2008/09. They have been dominating the Spanish Cup since then.

A change to a mostly single-legged format in 2019 has helped shape the Copa del Rey into a more open competition. However, the big clubs still benefit from favourable conditions.

The four clubs involved in the Supercopa receive a direct pass to the third round, which they enter as top seeds. This guarantees they will face lower-league opposition. In a new change this term, the Supercopa clubs’ special status has been extended to the fourth round as well.

That rule should make the path to the final easier for Barcelona, who saw off Guadalajara 2-0 in the third round. While Hansi Flick rotated his team, he still selected very strong players for that match. The likes of Lamine Yamal, Frenkie de Jong, and Marcus Rashford played the entire 90 minutes.

They will face one of the five remaining Segunda Division clubs away from home in round four. Flick’s decision to treat the competition seriously suggests they will win that match and advance to the quarter-finals.

Based on current evidence, Barca remain the strongest team in the competition, which they won last term. The Catalans have now won their last eight domestic matches.

However, La Liga and European football will still be more important than the Copa del Rey. Barca are currently only 15th in the Champions League standings. This means they may need to participate in a play-off tie in February to stay in Europe.

This extra challenge would make it difficult for them to maintain a strong run in the domestic cup. Therefore, with an implied probability of 38.1%, betting on them to win the Copa del Rey does not offer good value.

Real Madrid

Both Madrid clubs are currently in the top eight of the Champions League. Since they still have matches against Monaco and Benfica to play, Los Blancos look likely to qualify directly for the round of 16.

Direct qualification would reduce their schedule in February, which is when the Copa del Rey quarter-finals and semi-final first legs take place. The second legs in the last four immediately follow the Champions League knockout stage play-offs in early March. This schedule could create a difficult run of five consecutive midweek fixtures for some clubs.

Despite the potentially easier schedule, there is still little reason to fancy Real Madrid to win the Spanish Cup at such short odds. Their recent record in this competition is unimpressive. They’ve won it only three times since 1993, and the side do not traditionally prioritize this trophy.

Furthermore, Xabi Alonso’s side currently appear unconvincing. They’ve won just four of their last 10 matches in all competitions. They even struggled to defeat minnows Talavera in the third round, eventually securing a nervous 3-2 victory earlier this week.

Atletico Madrid

Like Barcelona and Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid are also involved in the Spanish Supercopa in January. This ensures they will travel to play second-tier opponents in the next round of the Copa del Rey.

Their away form has been poor all season, as they’ve lost five of their 12 away games. They were really fortunate to see off Atletico Baleares 3-2 in the Copa del Rey third round. The fourth-tier side created an xG total of 3.6 in that match.

Therefore, there is no guarantee that Atleti would beat a team like Racing Santander or Deportivo La Coruna away in the next round. Should they advance from their Madrid derby semi-final in the Supercopa, the quick turnaround between games would also be an issue.

Los Rojiblancos have only won the Copa del Rey once since their double-winning 1995/96 season. There appears to be no value in backing them to end that poor run this year.

Looking beyond the big three offers better value

While last season’s Copa del Rey did result in a Clasico final, this is not the usual outcome. Looking at other teams often provides better value in this tournament. Valencia, Real Betis, Real Sociedad, and Athletic Club have secured the trophy in the last seven years.

All four of them are still in this season’s competition. Betis have the potential advantage of currently playing their home games at La Cartuja, which will again host the final. However, they still have a lot of work to do in order to reach the final again.

The Europa League will be a significant distraction for Betis. They seem like strong candidates to go far in that competition. Their squad may ultimately lack the quality needed to handle a long Copa del Rey challenge, too.

Meanwhile, Valencia and Real Sociedad are struggling in the bottom half of La Liga. Both sides are likely to be eliminated from the Copa del Rey as soon as they are drawn against one of the favourites.

The value pick, specifically as an each-way bet, may be Athletic Club. The Basque giants have a great tradition in this competition, having won it 24 times. Although most of those victories happened a long time ago, they have reached three of the last six finals.

Injuries have affected Los Leones in the first half of this season. That’s likely to lead to an early exit in the Champions League. However, leaving the European competition should free them up to focus strongly on the Copa del Rey.

Athletic face Barcelona in the Supercopa semi-finals. They’re likely to lose that game, which would give them plenty of time to prepare for their fourth-round tie.

With home advantage in Bilbao and a fanbase that loves the cup, they are capable of beating any opponent. The Basques offer great value with an implied probability of 5.9% to win the Copa del Rey.