How to Bet on the Contrasting Seasons of the Basque Sides in La Liga

Real Sociedad are staring at the prospect of missing out on Europe, or even finishing in the bottom half.

Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Athletic Club Seize Local Bragging Rights

Athletic Club and Real Sociedad are well-known Basque rivals. Both hail from the Basque Country, but this rivalry runs a little deeper. Locals call it El Derbi Vasco, and it is one of the highlights on each club’s fixture list.

Dominance has swung back and forth between the two teams in recent history. Athletic finished above their rivals last season, while the roles were reversed the campaign prior. This season has been dominated by Athletic, who are a whopping 15 points clear.

They’ve been able to balance their European commitments with their league campaign. Athletic are actually still in the Europa League, while Sociedad were eliminated. That’s another indicator of how Sociedad are falling behind.

Current form further reinforces this gap. Sociedad had lost five of their last ten games in all competitions before their midweek clash with Real Madrid. Compare that with Athletic Club, whose last five competitive losses came across 31 games.

These two sides still have to face each other in May, which is a chance for Sociedad to salvage some pride. However, the reverse meeting went in Athletic’s favour. Sociedad are unbeaten in seven El Derbi Vasco home games.

It would take a fairly remarkable turnaround for Sociedad to get into Europe next season. With just nine games left to play, they trail the top six by nine points. A bottom-half finish seems more realistic for Sociedad. They’re currently just four points above 14th-place Osasuna.

Wherever they finish, it’s set to be a disappointing season for the Basque side. They haven’t finished outside of the top six since 2018/19. This could even be a campaign that marks historical lows. They haven’t finished lower than 12th since the 2010/11 season.

Is It Worth Backing Sociedad?

Sociedad have had a lackluster 2025 in La Liga so far. Imanol Alguacil’s side have won just four games this calendar year, with one draw and six defeats. A standout theme to all those wins is all four came on home turf.

That opens up a huge avenue of value for bettors when Sociedad hit the road. Sociedad are winless in six La Liga away games, having lost five of them. They hit the road in their next league outing too, so bettors should be keeping an eye on their fixtures.

They travel to Las Palmas this weekend, but are surprisingly still priced as favourites. This is likely due to Las Palmas residing in the relegation zone. However, with Sociedad’s dismal away form, backing the underdogs may be a value pick here.

Five of Sociedad’s remaining nine fixtures come on the road this season. Three of those come against sides above them in the table. Although the odds will be much shorter in those games, they appear to be safer bets. 

That’s especially true considering Sociedad haven’t beaten a side above them in the table away from home this season. All five losses in that time also saw them fail to score. That again proves just how far off the mark they’ve been this season on the road.

It’s been a season for backing home sides in La Liga too. Of the 20 teams competing in the Spanish top-flight, 19 prefer playing at home. Only Barcelona average more points per game on the road, the other 19 perform better at home.

None of the other top-five European leagues are weighted as favourably to the home teams. That hints that Sociedad’s struggles on the road could be punished heavily in the remainder of the campaign.