Our betting expert expects El Clasico to deliver plenty of goals again, with Barcelona the team to get their hands on the trophy.
Best bets for Barcelona vs Real Madrid
- Barcelona to win at odds of 1.97 on Betway
- Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.86 on Betway
- Barcelona to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.60 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Barcelona 3-1 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Barcelona: Raphinha, Lamine Yamal, Robert Lewandowski - Real Madrid: Gonzalo Garcia
Real Madrid won 2-1 when the clubs met in La Liga back in October. However, little has gone right for Los Blancos since then, with Xabi Alonso now under serious pressure. Even a 2-1 derby victory over Atletico Madrid in the semi-final on Thursday has done little to change that situation.
Barcelona were much more convincing as they thrashed Athletic Club 5-0 to reach the final. Hansi Flick’s team are in great form, winning all of their matches since a 3-0 defeat to Chelsea in November.
This is the fourth straight Clasico Super Cup final. Barca have won two of the last three, including a 5-2 victory in this fixture last term.
Probable lineups for Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Barcelona expected lineup: J. Garcia, Balde, Martin, Cubarsi, Kounde, E. Garcia, Pedri, Raphinha, Olmo, Yamal, Lewandowski
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Asencio, Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Vinicius, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Gonzalo
Barca to defend their Super Cup crown
Even in victory on Thursday, Real Madrid were largely unimpressive. They looked vulnerable in the air and faced 22 attempts against Atleti. Diego Simeone’s team won the xG count by a margin of 2.3 to 1.2.
Without Kylian Mbappe, and with significant defensive injury issues, it’s hard to see Real Madrid winning this competition. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last seven matches. That’s a big worry up against a dangerous Barca attack that will be at full strength.
Flick’s team have won nine in a row in all competitions. They have an 86% win ratio since a defeat at the Bernabeu back in October, when key players were short on fitness. That shouldn’t be an issue on Sunday, and Barca ought to be capable of winning inside 90 minutes.
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Barcelona to win at odds of 1.97 on Betway
Goals to flow in El Clasico again
This is one of the few big fixtures in world football that almost always lives up to the hype. Since the start of last season, there have been 26 goals scored in the five Clasico matches. Both teams scored in four of those games.
While Barcelona have tightened up in recent weeks with five straight clean sheets, they are still giving up chances. Only a brilliant goalkeeping performance from Joan Garcia denied Espanyol last weekend. They allowed 1.6 xG in that match, while Villarreal also created 1.6 xG against Barca in their previous game.
Real Madrid are already missing Eder Militao, and their two starting centre-backs were both forced off on Thursday. Antonio Rudiger is now a major doubt for this game, which should be good news for the opposing attack.
Backing over 3.5 goals has been profitable in four of the last five meetings between the clubs. That bet looks good again with an implied probability of 51.3%.
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.86 on Betway
Free-scoring Catalans to fire
Even with Lamine Yamal on the bench, Barca still scored four goals in the space of 16 minutes against Athletic. Marcus Rashford, Dani Olmo and Robert Lewandowski were also only substitutes in that game. That highlights the impressive depth that Flick has at his disposal.
With fresh legs expected to come in, they should ask regular questions of an understrength Real Madrid defence. Barca can also take confidence from their average of a goal every 24 minutes against this opposition last term.
This season, they’ve continued to play high-risk attacking football. Since the last Clasico, they’ve scored twice or more in 13 of their 14 matches. The Catalan giants averaged 2.86 goals per 90 minutes across that period.
Given those trends, backing the favourites to score over 2.5 goals looks good with an implied probability of 35.7%.
- Barcelona vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Barcelona to score over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.60 on Betway