Atletico vs Barcelona Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Atletico vs Barcelona
- Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87 on Betway
- Draw or Barcelona and both teams to score at odds of 2.20 on Betway
- Goal range of 3-5 goals at odds of 1.90 on Betway
We expect a tight 2-1 victory for Barcelona over Atletico.
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Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
Atletico Madrid’s form has been inconsistent ahead of their Copa del Rey semi-final second leg against Barcelona. They’ve failed to win their last three La Liga matches and were knocked out of the Champions League by rivals Real Madrid two weeks ago. They’re hard to beat at home, but Barca have proven recently that they’re capable of doing just that.
The visitors’ form is much better. They’ve won six in a row, scored a load of goals, and find themselves at the top of the league table. They haven’t won this competition since 2021, and will see a big chance to change that this year.
Probable Lineups for Atletico vs Barcelona
Atletico Expected Lineup: Oblak, Llorente, Le Normand, Lenglet, Galan, Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino, Alvarez, Griezmann
Barcelona Expected Lineup: Szczesny, Kounde, Cubarsi, Martinez, Balde, Pedri, Gavi, Yamal, Lopez, Raphinha, Lewandowski
Familiar Foes and Lots of Goals
Atletico Madrid and Barcelona are very well acquainted at the moment. They’ve played each other three times since December 21st, and a total of 17 goals have been scored. There’s not been a clean sheet in sight for either side.
Atletico’s current form has wiped out their La Liga title ambitions, so they’ll be desperate to progress in the cup. They haven’t won the Copa del Rey since 2013, and they are in a good position here with the second leg at home. A 4-4 draw in the first leg was as dramatic as it gets and leaves the tie wide open.
Four consecutive meetings between these two have seen over 2.5 goals, and both have found the net in three. However, Hansi Flick’s side are in superb form, having won six in a row since the first leg draw. Atletico, meanwhile, have won just one of six in the games that followed.
- Atletico vs Barcelona Bet 1: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.87 on Betway
Busy at Both Ends
The hosts have conceded in seven of their last 10 matches across all competitions - including the four against Barca. Even though they still have the best defensive record in La Liga, something’s not been right at the back of late.
The Blaugrana are hardly watertight, though, and have conceded nine goals in 10 matches going back to early February. The difference is that Flick’s side almost always manage to score more than they concede. If they can do that again at Estadio Metropolitano, then they’ll be on their way to the final in Seville.
Atletico are famously difficult to beat at home, with only two losses this season - one of which was to Barcelona last month. They’ve also scored in 19 consecutive games on their own turf, while the visitors have scored in every game in 2025. A winner is harder to pick, but goals seem inevitable.
- Atletico vs Barcelona Bet 2: Draw or Barcelona and both teams to score at odds of 2.20 on Betway
Key Scorers Return to Improve Goal Chances
Diego Simeone’s Rojiblancos should welcome back the competition’s top scorer, Julian Alvarez, after he was rested at the weekend. He started on the bench for the 1-1 draw against Espanyol, but will almost certainly be reinstated for this one. The Argentine has five Copa del Rey goals in 2024/25 and will be eager to add to his tally.
The visitors, meanwhile, will have Raphinha back available to start - and Robert Lewandowski’s in fine form. The Brazilian missed out on the 4-1 win over Girona due to a short turnaround from international duty, but he was still included on the bench. He and Lewandowski, who scored two in his last match, are expected to start together in Madrid.
Dani Olmo’s absence due to injury is certainly a blow for Flick, but they have plenty of attacking options. With 82 league goals so far, plus 18 in the cup, they’re not struggling on the goals front. With a place in the final on the line, however, expect a cagier affair than the last two meetings between these two.
- Atletico vs Barcelona Bet 3: Goal range of 3-5 goals at odds of 1.90 on Betway