Our betting expert expects Atletico Madrid to score first in an open game, which is likely to go the distance.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
- 1st Goal - Atletico Madrid at odds of 2.00 on Betway
- 2nd Half - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.85 on Betway
- Draw at odds of 3.60 on Betway
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Atletico Madrid 2-2 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Atletico Madrid: Alexander Sorloth, Julian Alvarez - Real Madrid: Gonzalo Garcia, Rodrygo
Despite four consecutive victories across all competitions, Real Madrid boss Xabi Alonso is still under a lot of pressure ahead of this week’s Supercopa.
Los Blancos put in one of their best displays of the season on Sunday. They defeated Real Betis 5-1 without the injured Kylian Mbappe. Youngster Gonzalo Garcia stepped up with a brilliant hat-trick in the Frenchman’s absence.
Atletico Madrid warmed up for this tie with a 1-1 draw away to Real Sociedad. Alexander Sorloth scored against his old club, but Atleti lost further ground in the title race. Diego Simeone’s side had won four in a row in all competitions before that.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Hancko, Le Normand, Pubill, Llorente, Baena, Cardoso, Koke, Simeone, Sorloth, Alvarez
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Asencio, Rudiger, Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Vinicius, Bellingham, Rodrygo, Gonzalo
Atleti to strike first in Jeddah
Atletico Madrid have consistently failed to make the most of winning positions so far this season. They have scored first in 18 of their 19 league games, with their 1-0 defeat to Athletic Club last month being the only exception.
However, Los Rojiblancos have ultimately won 11 of those matches. One of those victories was their 5-2 win over Madrid in the derby back in September. They had success with crosses into the penalty area on that occasion, with Sorloth being a constant threat.
That approach could prove successful once again, particularly with Real Madrid still short on central defensive options. Eder Militao is definitely sidelined, while Dean Huijsen is also a major doubt.
Given their record for starting quickly, backing Atletico to score first looks good with an implied probability of 50%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Bet 1: 1st Goal - Atletico Madrid at odds of 2.00 on Betway
Goals to flow after the break
Both sides were involved in matches that opened up after the interval on Sunday. There were two goals in the first 10 minutes after the break as Atletico Madrid drew at Real Sociedad. Meanwhile, the second half of Real Madrid’s clash with Betis produced five goals.
Alonso’s side have appeared more vulnerable after the interval this term. They conceded three second-half goals in their dramatic derby defeat at the Estadio Metropolitano. Moreover, 71% of the league goals they have let in have come after the break.
Atletico Madrid’s defence has also seemed more vulnerable in the second half in La Liga. In fact, 59% of the goals they’ve conceded have been scored after the interval.
Eight goals were scored across a thrilling 120 minutes when the sides last met in the Supercopa in 2024. Backing over 1.5 goals to be scored in the second half on Thursday is at value.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Bet 2: 2nd Half - Over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.85 on Betway
Another derby draw in store
The two Madrid clubs have met very frequently in recent years, and there’s rarely much to choose between them. One-off knockout ties frequently required extra time.
All eight single-legged cup meetings since the start of the 2010s have finished level after 90 minutes. Therefore, a repeat on Thursday would be no surprise, particularly given that neither side are currently fully convincing.
With Mbappe a major injury doubt, Real Madrid could be missing their best player. That adds to the sense that there is no clear favourite in Jeddah. Backing the draw may be the smart bet.
- Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Draw at odds of 3.60 on Betway