Our betting expert expects a tight game to finish level in a fresh setback for boss Xabi Alonso, who is under-pressure.
Best bets for Alaves vs Real Madrid
- Half-time - Draw at odds of 2.40 on Betway
- Real Madrid to score under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.20 on Betway
- Alaves to win or draw at odds of 2.13 on Betway
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Alaves 1-1 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction - Alaves: Lucas Boye - Real Madrid: Jude Bellingham
Alaves ended a three-game losing streak in La Liga by beating local rivals Real Sociedad 1-0 last weekend. They will now face top-of-the-table opposition for the second time in a fortnight following a 3-1 defeat to Barcelona on Matchday 14.
Chacho Coudet’s side are sitting comfortably in the middle of the table as things stand. They will fancy their chances of causing a famous upset against a Real Madrid side that is in poor form.
Los Blancos head into this fixture following back-to-back home losses to Celta Vigo and Man City. There is serious speculation that a defeat on Sunday may end Alonso’s short time as manager.
Probable lineups for Alaves vs Real Madrid
Alaves expected lineup: Sivera, Parada, Pacheco, Tenaglia, Jonny, Blanco, Ibanez, Rebbach, Suarez, Calebe, Boye
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Camavinga, Rudiger, Asencio, Valverde, Guler, Tchouameni, Bellingham, Vinicius, G. Garcia, Rodrygo
An even first half in store
Real Madrid have no momentum ahead of this game, with reports suggesting many players would be happy with a change of manager. That puts Alonso in a really difficult position, which is made worse by a host of selection issues.
Given that, it’s unlikely that Real Madrid will start the game strongly against an organised Alaves side. Even when they were winning consistently, Los Blancos often took more than 45 minutes to take control of the game. Half of their away league fixtures this season have been tied at halftime.
Alaves have played eight home fixtures so far this term, and they have not lost at halftime in any of them. Five of those games were tied at the break. Therefore, there is value in backing a halftime draw, with an implied probability of 41.7%.
- Alaves vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Half-time - Draw at odds of 2.40 on Betway
Strong home defence to hold firm
While Alaves have their limitations in attack, they are really solid defensively. Only Villarreal have scored fewer goals in La Liga heading into this weekend. Their tally of 15 goals conceded is exactly in line with the 15.0 xG they have allowed. Only Getafe have allowed fewer xG in the Spanish top flight this term.
Those numbers highlight how tough this fixture may prove to be for Real Madrid. The visitors have scored one or fewer goals in five of their last eight matches, winning just two of them.
They also have an injury doubt again over Kylian Mbappe. A muscular issue prevented the striker from featuring against City on Tuesday. The 26-year-old has scored exactly half of his team’s league goals this term.
Therefore, backing Real Madrid to score under 1.5 goals looks good with an implied probability of 45.5%.
- Alaves vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Real Madrid to score under 1.5 goals at odds of 2.20 on Betway
Dropped points to pile the pressure on Alonso
Mbappe is far from the only player Real Madrid may have to cope without on Sunday. Fran Garcia, Endrick, and Alvaro Carreras are suspended after they received red cards against Celta last weekend. Trent Alexander-Arnold, Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, and Ferland Mendy are injured, while a further three players are rated doubtful.
That could provide a rare opportunity for Alaves to record a famous upset. Whether they have sufficient firepower to claim all three points is uncertain, but they’re certainly tough to beat under Coudet.
Since the Argentine’s appointment last December, they’ve only lost 34% of their matches in all competitions. The Basque side have conceded under a goal per game across that period.
They’ve already held Atletico Madrid at the Estadio de Mendizorroza this term. Given their many current problems, backing Real Madrid to also drop points here looks to offer value.
- Alaves vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Alaves to win or draw at odds of 2.13 on Betway