With two winnable home games left and a trip to a struggling Sevilla in between, Mbappe can score plenty more in May to lift the Pichichi Trophy.
Kylian Mbappe Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
La Liga Top Scorer | |
Anytime Goalscorer vs Mallorca | |
First Goalscorer vs Mallorca |
Odds courtesy of Bet9ja. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Why it’s High Time to Back Mbappe for Goals in Real’s Closing Fixtures
With five goals in his last two La Liga games, Kylian Mbappe has overtaken Robert Lewandowski into first place in the race for La Liga’s top scorer award.
Mbappe notched a hat-trick in El Clasico on Sunday, but even this wasn’t enough to prevent Real from falling to a 4-3 defeat at the Nou Camp. The defeat effectively ends Real’s title hopes, but their three remaining games give Mbappe a huge opportunity to extend his advantage over Lewandowski.
The average points per game total of Real’s three remaining opponents is just 1.16.
On Wednesday, Real host a Mallorca side that have picked up just 20 points from 17 away games. They’ve also lost three of their last four away games, with their safe mid-table position already assured.
The betting markets currently give Mbappe a mere 25% chance of scoring first against Mallorca. We believe this is exceptional value given what’s at stake for him and Mallorca’s lack of motivation.
Real then travel to a Sevilla side that still have a mathematical chance of relegation to La Liga 2. They’ve averaged just 0.25 points per game from their last eight games, showing a dramatic decline in form.
Their final match of the season is against Real Sociedad, who have averaged just 1.06 points per away game this season, losing half of their games outside of San Sebastian.
It all bodes nicely for Kylian Mbappe. He will be eager to take advantage of the relaxed and out-of-form defences to push towards the 30-goal mark.
Mbappe’s Only Silverware in 2024/25
It has been a trophyless season for Los Blancos, but Mbappe could still end up with personal glory by the end of May. He is currently on 27 goals from 31 La Liga appearances this season. That’s two ahead of Lewandowski, who has struck 25 goals in the same number of appearances.
Lewandowski has recently struggled with injuries, particularly a hamstring issue in the last few weeks. By contrast, Mbappe has been in top form and fitness, despite sparking controversy with his red card at Alaves last month.
It would be the first Pichichi Trophy for Mbappe since his switch from Paris Saint-Germain to the Bernabeu last year.
However, he’s no stranger to individual success, having won Ligue 1’s top goalscorer award in six successive seasons for PSG between 2018/19 and 2023/24.
Lewandowski’s Hopes Hit by Barca’s Run-In
Even if Mbappe fails to find the target again this season, he’s still in with a great chance of finishing as La Liga’s top scorer.
That’s because Barcelona have a tricky set of fixtures remaining. Barca only need two points from their last three games to clinch the title, thanks to their far superior goal difference over Real Madrid.
However, the average points per game total of Barca’s three remaining opponents is a respectable 1.86 points per game.
Barca have a Catalan derby at Espanyol on the horizon, before clashes with fifth and fourth-placed sides Villarreal and Athletic Bilbao.
Bilbao have lost just once at home this season, conceding a miserly 0.56 goals per home game. Meanwhile, Villarreal have won ten of their 18 away games this season and are currently on a three-game winning streak.
These are not the type of fixtures Lewandowski would have hoped for as he returns to action. Ultimately, it seems like the odds are heavily stacked against Lewandowski for the top scorer prize.
If both players replicate their performances against their upcoming opponents in their first meetings of the season, Mbappe would finish on 29 La Liga goals, with Lewandowski just one behind on 28.