Rodrygo to go, Trent-Alexander Arnold arrives - but how should Real Madrid line up under Xabi Alonso if Carlo Ancelotti departs?

Since we're playing Football Manager here, three things need to be established; the first is the easy assumption that Trent Alexander-Arnold does indeed arrive from Liverpool on a free transfer. That seems to have been sorted for some time now - his puzzled expression after Liverpool won the league at Anfield last week notwithstanding. It seems likely that, given the strength of Dani Carvajal at right-back - and the new contract offered to him - that Alexander-Arnold will be slotted into midfield (a frightening prospect for those who watched that woeful experiment for England at Euro 2024).

The second is the less likely but equally sensible guess that Rodrygo departs. His name has cropped up in transfer talk more frequently of late, and it is becoming increasingly clear that he is never going to be able to play in his preferred left-wing position if he is to stay in Madrid.

And the third - which is much more far-fetched than either of the previous two - is the likelihood of everyone here staying fit and healthy. Madrid have been hit hard by injuries this season, and at the time of writing have just one fit natural centre-back in Raul Asencio. All of the nerdy stuff that follows assumes that Carvajal is fit enough to play right-back, and Eder Militao recovers in time in central defence.

Carlo Ancelotti claimed a few weeks ago that a 4-4-2 was the best system for Madrid. It felt quite a lot like an act of desperation; Los Blancos were trying to attack too much. They have two very quick forwards in Vinicius and Mbappe, an imperfect right-midfielder in Rodrygo, and Bellingham could, sure, play off the left.

Alonso, should Alexander-Arnold arrive, could make this one a bit more interesting - but also compromise in some other areas. It would certainly allow for both Carvajal and Alexander-Arnold to get into the team - something that could get complicated otherwise. But it would also sacrifice the attacking nous of Bellingham, and also give up some tempo-setting quality in midfield. A four-man midfield of Alexander-Arnold, Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga and Bellingham, with Mbappe and Vinicius up front, is an enticing thing that might just work, and with Carvajal offering cover at right-back, should be resolute enough defensively.

Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy

Midfielders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Federico Valverde, Eduardo Camavinga, Jude Bellingham

Forwards: Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe

The temptation here might be for Alonso to stick with what he knows. There is a real danger in coming to a new club and immediately trying to instate a slightly unorthodox system (just ask Ruben Amorim). Alonso's most effective formation to date is a 3-4-2-1, with two very attacking wing-backs, and dual 10s who play in behind a bigger centre-forward. Look at Madrid's squad, and there's room for optimism, but also many ways in which this simply would not work.

For a start, it would seem to be Alexander-Arnold's dream - removing his defensive responsibilities and asking him to create from wide areas. It would also, presumably, suit Bellingham, who could tuck in nicely as one of the No.10s. Outside of that, things look trickier. Mbappe could play as the No.9, but Alonso likes his big man to be more static and reliable in holding up the ball. Vinicius, too, could be something of a mixed bag here, his attacking skills valuable when the game opens up but not quite as effective in tight spaces.

There are concerns, too, at the back. Madrid have struggled for centre-backs this season due to a sheer volume of injuries. Such a system would require a few medical miracles as well as some new signings. Left-wing-back is also an issue. Ferland Mendy would seem too defensive for the position, while Fran Garcia might be too attacking. Perhaps Swiss Army Knife Camavinga could do a job? In short: interesting, but not immediately effective.

Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger

Midfielders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Eduardo Camavinga

Attacking midfielders: Vinicius Jr, Jude Bellingham

Forward: Kylian Mbappe

This is the fun one - the high-risk, high-reward setup that could either be a dream or a total nightmare. First of all, it's probably where the purest football comes into play; a three-man midfield of Alexander-Arnold, Valverde and Bellingham would be defensive suicide. But when executed well, it's not hard to see Los Blancos exerting full control over their opponent. It would also, presumably, offer a chance for Endrick to get a real look, while giving more space for Mbappe and Vinicius to play together. Should Alonso opt for a sturdier defence, he could play Valverde at right-wing - as he did in the 2021-22 campaign - and drop Tchouameni or Camavinga into midfield.

Either way, this setup doesn't scream of defensive solidity but would certainly offer the sort of tempo-setting from central midfield that Los Blancos haven't had since Kroos left. Just pray the game doesn't open up...

Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy

Midfielders: Federico Valverde, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Jude Bellingham

Forwards: Endrick, Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr

This was the system that Madrid tinkered with towards the end of the 2023-24 campaign, and, at times, it worked an absolute charm. In truth, it was a bit lopsided, but managed to carry them in the Champions League. Ancelotti realised that he needed Modric to play in the big games, and that Madrid were at their most effective when Vinicius was breaking into central areas off the left. His solution was to play without a true focal point, and instead trust in the inherent switch-ability of Rodrygo, Bellingham and Vinicius, with Modric as a 10 to sort of clean things up and Kroos and Valverde tucked in for tempo and legs.

This would work with radically different personnel and not really function in the same way. For one, it would seem to be far more attacking in some senses, and leave Madrid painfully open on the left flank. But the legs on the right might patch up some obvious weaknesses. Furthermore, using Bellingham as a No.10 seems to be the way to get the best out of him, while allowing either Tchouameni or Camavinga to hold down the centre of the park enables Alexander-Arnold to spray the ball around.

Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy

Midfielders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eduardo Camavinga

Attacking Midfielders: Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham, Vinicius Jr

Forwards: Kylian Mbappe

Let's get groovy. Box midfields are fun. It's what the cool kids have been doing for a few years now. People lost thir collective minds when John Stones stepped into centre-midfield and started operating like a world-class No.6 for Manchester City. It is conveniently lost in that mania that the Germans had been doing some version of a box midfield for years- especially in the RB Leipzig school of pressing (thanks, Ralf Rangnick).

This formation might be more of a rip off of Julian Nagelsmann's 4-2-2-2 that has proved so effective for Germany. And in terms of getting everyone in their best position, it might be the most obvious answer. Vinicius and Mbappe, with time and a solid system, could learn how to play as strikers; Bellingham and Valverde could form the 'front' of the box, with Alexander-Arnold and Camavinga holding down the defensive roles; the back four picks itself (although it would require some serious legwork from the full-backs to offer attacking width).

Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois

Defenders: Dani Carvajal, Eder Militao, Antonio Rudiger, Ferland Mendy

Midfielders: Trent Alexander-Arnold, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Jude Bellingham

Forwards: Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr

Well, none of them, really. All of these systems are deeply flawed, and do little to cover up the fact that Madrid have a very poorly-balanced squad. There isn't a clear pattern to be found here, and the fact that both Vinicius and Mbappe are left wingers can't really be masked. The departure of Rodrygo - not a right-winger - would also highlight that Madrid don't really have a wide man to hold width on that flank.

The most logical shape is probably a 4-2-2-2 with a box midfield. It would offer the best defensive base, and a solid partnership in a double pivot. Valverde and Bellingham figure to be active attacking presences in advanced areas, while the hope would be that Vinicius and Mbappe learn how to play together in full. This would, of course, require a fair amount of defensive and positional discipline. But Mbappe's inevitable wanderings can be covered up by Valverde's legs on the right. It would also allow Alexander-Arnold to do what he does best, while covering up his undeniable defensive weaknesses.

But perhaps the most pressing issue here is that such a system would require a bunch of virtuosos to bury their egos and play in a system that requires tactical sacrifice. Whether any coach - even Europe's next big thing - can do that remains to be seen.