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Italy's 3-1 win over France at San Siro put Roberto Mancini's side provisionally top of Group 1 in League A of the 2026/2027 Nations League. Their quarter-final place remains at stake when they face Belgium at the King Baudouin Stadium in Brussels at 20:45 on Sunday 15 November.
TWO RESULTS OUT OF THREE - The top two teams qualify. The Azzurri lead on 10 points, level with France, while Belgium sit just behind on nine. Italy can therefore afford to lose if France lose, or draw against Van Bommel's side regardless of France's result.
At his press conference, Mancini rejected the Belgium head coach's suggestion that Italy would play cautiously: "Sitting back and waiting is not part of our mentality, not least because the danger is that the balance can change in an instant and you then cannot recover. We always play with the intention of winning, because courage is what enables you to do that."
CAMBIAGHI AND FRATTESI FORCED CHANGES - Mancini will stick as closely as possible to the side that faced France, with adventurous wide players in attack and defence in a basic 4-3-3. He must make two changes after losing Frattesi to a muscle problem and Cambiaghi to ankle pain following the match.
WITH CALAFIORI TO BE ASSESSED - Mancini also has a doubt over regular starter Riccardo Calafiori. The Arsenal defender, now firmly established as a left-back for the Azzurri too, is not at his best and needs a breather. Mancini will assess him tomorrow: "Calafiori is one of those who needs to be assessed."
THE CERTAINTIES - Mancini will keep Donnarumma in goal and as captain despite his blunder against France. Bastoni, who is not suspended because the yellow card shown on screen was an error, and Scalvini will play in defence. Barella and Tonali are certain starters in midfield, with Pio Esposito the driving force up front.
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WHO GETS THE NOD? - At right-back, Palestra is pushing Kayode, who was adventurous at San Siro. Mancini must also replace Frattesi. Doumbia leads the race as a like-for-like replacement in midfield, but Fagioli is gaining ground as a deep-lying playmaker. That would move Tonali into Frattesi's midfield role. On the right wing, Vergara could replace Sebastiano Esposito, who started against France, although the decision may also depend on who replaces Cambiaghi.
DIMARCO'S ROLE - The decision on Cambiaghi's replacement hinges on whether Calafiori plays. Mancini reiterated that he has long considered using Dimarco further forward out wide. If the Arsenal full-back plays, Dimarco would move to the wing, with Vergara, who is better in one-on-one situations, on the other side. If Calafiori cannot play, Mancini could take the more solid option of keeping Dimarco at full-back with a player skilled in one-on-one situations ahead of him. Vergara could shift to the left, with Sebastiano Esposito on the right, or a very young player such as Alphadjo Cisse or Mattia Liberali could make their debut from the start.
HOW BELGIUM-ITALY COULD LINE UP
BELGIUM (4-3-3): Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Tielemans, Raskin, De Bruyne; Moreira, De Ketelaere, Doku. Head coach: Van Bommel.
ITALY (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Kayode/Palestra, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Doumbia/Fagioli, Tonali, Barella; Vergara, Pio Esposito, Dimarco. Head coach: Mancini.