Global statistics giant "Opta" has revealed its striking predictions for the second week of the Champions League, placing Galatasaray in an unenviable position against Barcelona while handing Fenerbahce a greater glimmer of hope in their English mission.
Europe's most prestigious club competition resumes today, with Galatasaray hosting Spanish giants Barcelona in front of a packed Rams Park. Fenerbahce face a task no easier tomorrow, travelling to England as heavy underdogs against Aston Villa.
Hours before kick-off, specialist network "Opta" published its verdict on Galatasaray versus Barcelona, drawn from thousands of artificial intelligence simulations and a precise analysis of thousands of data points covering the performance of both sides.
The numbers back the Catalans heavily. Barcelona carry a 68.9% chance of winning in Istanbul, leaving Galatasaray just 13.4% on home soil, with a draw rated at 17.7%.
Fenerbahce come out of it rather better, even with a trip to Villa Park ahead of them.
Opta's simulation gives the Istanbul side a 22.1% chance of victory against Aston Villa's 55.1%, with 22.8% on the draw.
Those figures lay bare the gap the models see between Turkish football and Europe's elite. They also pile every ounce of pressure on Barcelona and Aston Villa, and hand the two Turkish clubs a reason to go after a surprise in front of their own supporters.