Liga MX 2024 Apertura Playoffs: Cruz Azul favorites but Toluca and Tigres are legitimate contenders

Cruz Azul’s keys to success: Patience

The ‘curse of the superlíder’ can weigh on teams, but Cruz Azul have every reason to trust their quality. This is a team that set the record for the most points in a 17-game season, boasting the league’s top-scoring attack and stingiest defense. Rested and ready, Cruz Azul must stay composed - even if the first leg gets tricky. Tijuana’s Estadio Caliente and its artificial turf present unique challenges, but Cruz Azul has the tools to navigate the series successfully.

Player to watch: Carlos Rotondi

There are plenty of players to pick from, but Rotondi may be the most outright fun to actually watch. He finished the regular season with seven goals and four assists, the left-footed attacker is feeling confident and creating scoring plays for himself and his teammates seemingly from nothing.

Tijuana’s keys to success: Rotate and hope the depth holds up

Juan Carlos Osorio has never been afraid to mix up his starting XI, but even if he weren’t a coach constantly questioned about his "rotations" he’d have to give his players a break. While they’ve all been at home, Tijuana will be playing a third game in seven days when it hosts the first leg of the series - done no favors by schedule-makers who could’ve put the home leg one day later. It then plays a fourth game in 10 days for the second leg. Xolos must get contributions from players who perhaps haven’t been key for most of the Apertura.

Player to watch: Raul Zuñiga

He cooled after a hot start to the season, but La Pantera suddenly had a fire lit under him during the play-in round when the club needed it most. After scoring the second goal in what ultimately was a loss to América, he did himself one better with a match-opening double in a 3-0 win over Atlas. His fourth-minute finish shifted the tone and the 20th-minute one killed the game off before it even got going. Goals won’t be anywhere near that easy against Cruz Azul’s back line. If Xolos find them, though, Zuñiga likely will play a part.

GOAL prediction: Cruz Azul isn’t bothered by any sort of curse, pressure, or challenge from Xolos and will win both legs to get through to the next round.

Toluca’s keys to success: Force pressure on the field and avoid pressure off

Toluca are the higher seed, but Club América is the back-to-back champion and a team with fans throughout the entire continent. The style of play manager Renato Paiva has put into place takes advantage of the speed and hard work his players are willing to put in up top. It has been rewarded with one of the best attacks in the league. Putting Alexis Vega, Jesus Angulo, and Marcel Ruiz in the places on the field where they can do the most damage will help Toluca replicate a final-day blowout of América in the regular season.

Player to watch: Paulinho

While it may be a bit reductive to pick the league’s top scorer, the Portuguese striker undoubtedly has been a welcome addition not only to Toluca but to Liga MX. The perfect player to lead the line in Paiva’s attacking system, he bagged 13 goals this season to take the scoring crown. It’s still very early, and at 32 he almost certainly won’t make as much of an impact, but there are Andre-Pierre Gignac vibes to his arrival from Europe and his instant click with his club in Mexico.

América’s keys to success: Stay alert at the back and defend better

América shouldn’t have this many holes at the back and for the first two campaigns of the Andre Jardine era they didn’t. Yet, with the same manager, many of the same players, and Mexico’s No. 1 goalkeeper in Luis Malagón, the team has become leaky. It nearly cost it a playoff spot, both in the last-day game against Toluca and in the play-in game against Tijuana that América rallied to tie against 10 men and then won in a shootout. The defense has to be better, or the season will end.

Player to watch: Alvaro Fidalgo

The do-it-all midfielder has been tasked with, well, doing it all in recent weeks - with varying degrees of success. Despite the wear and tear, he provided a crucial assist in the play-in match that helped América reach this stage. However, much more control of the midfield will be needed if Las Águilas are to soar past Toluca and avoid another embarrassing defeat like the one at Estadio Nemesio Diez. It will be up to the Spaniard to step up and dictate the tempo in this pivotal match.

GOAL prediction: The defending champions won’t go quietly, but their title defense ends here as Toluca are able to win the home leg by multiple goals after falling to América in the first leg. Look for goals in both games, too.

Tigres’ keys to success: Understand the plan

Because of injuries or technical decisions, manager Veljko Paunović hasn’t used the same starting XI a single time this season, but Tigres still put together a season that nearly netted the No. 2 seed. As the No. 3, they’re playing a motivated Atlético San Luis team. With star forward Andre-Pierre Gigantic and midfielder Rafael Carioca nursing injuries, it may be another set of matches in which Pauno puts different lineups on the field and trusts his players to gel.

Player to watch: Juan Brunetta

While Gignac should be fit to return after suffering an injury in the final match of the regular season, it’s been Argentine attacker Brunetta who has made things happen for Tigres this year. He can set up Gignac, so good for so long in the playoffs he’s earned the nickname Mr. Liguilla, but he also combines well with Tigres’ other stars and has a ferocious shot he can unleash on his own as well.

San Luis’ keys to success: Attack without fear.

There’s nothing to lose here, and Domènec Torrent has been happy to push players into the attack and play in a positive way. Yes, Tigres can hit you going the other direction, but they might do that anyway with the quality they have.

Player to watch: Sébastien Salles-Lamonge

The Frenchman has showcased his versatility, playing in various positions, but he’s most noticeable near the edge of the area. Time and again this season, he’s unleashed shots that find the back of the net - earning him a spot on the highlight reels - or set up opportunities for teammates inside the box, often in ways that quietly go unnoticed.

GOAL prediction: While the upstart Atlético San Luis will frustrate Tigres for an hour or so in the first leg, Tigres will be able to secure a draw in that contest and win back at the Volcan to set up a big-time semifinal showdown - either against one of the league’s historic ‘grandes’ or against crosstown rival Monterrey.

Pumas’ keys to success: Find some creativity up front, from Cesar Huerta, Guillermo Martinez, or Piero Quispe

Things at the back have generally worked on their own, with just 13 goals conceded in 17 contests, but a lack of a killer instinct up front has made the defenders work over time. There are ballers in the team, but they have to show up if Pumas is going to get past a stacked Monterrey team.

Player to watch: Julio Gonzalez

That is, if Gonzalez is available. With a team as reliant on its defense as Pumas, the goalkeeper understandably steals a lot of the spotlight. But Gonzalez has missed the last several weeks because of a knee sprain and only now has recovered enough to return to training. If he’s not fit, Gil Alcala is a reliable backup, but getting a fit Gonzalez back in the starting lineup would be a huge boost for Pumas.

Monterrey’s keys to success: Rely on the value and leadership of Sergio Canales

In recent seasons, Monterrey has fallen short despite significant investments in overseas talent. That includes Spanish attacker Canales, along with Oliver Torres and Lucas Ocampos. While manager Martín Demichelis has occasionally succeeded in getting the squad to gel, there have also been times when one or two big-money players shine while others fade into the background. To advance past the first round, Monterrey must find a cohesive rhythm - and that often starts with Canales orchestrating the play.

Player to watch: Victor Guzman

While the Spanish trio will draw the eye (once Ocampos returns for the second leg after serving a red-card suspension), it’s at the back that Monterrey will need to be solid. Goalkeeper Esteban Andrade is out for the rest of the season, leaving longtime back-up Luis Alberto Cardenas as the likely starter for these key matches. With veteran Hector Moreno next to Guzman, it’s the 22-year-old’s chance to show he can be an enforcer worth continual call-ups to the national team.

GOAL prediction: As should be expected from a No. 4 vs. No. 5, this is the series that seems to have the least between the two teams. Look for Rayados to ride a strong home match to a series win, though not holding the first tiebreaker could come back to haunt them.