Cavan Sullivan may not beat Lionel Messi to MLS MVP - but he's already among the league's best at just 17

First, the football - because this is where it should all start.

It is worth noting here that we are looking at under two-thirds of an MLS season. Sullivan started getting consistent first-team minutes in late May, right before the World Cup. He only became a true regular right after the World Cup. He has played 1,828 minutes out of a possible 3,060. He has started 21 out of a possible 34 games. As sample sizes go, this isn't the most significant. And the other MVP finalists - Messi, Hany Mukhtar, Guilherme and Evander - have all comfortably eclipsed that mark.

But the numbers within that slice of a season are pretty remarkable. Sullivan has scored nine goals and added 14 assists. For context, here is a list of a handful of players that Sullivan has tallied more assists than: Timo Werner, Luis Suarez, Denis Bouanga, Emil Forsberg, Thomas Muller, Antoine Griezmann, and Carles Gil. He is one behind Son Heung-Min and Marcos Reus. This is going to be a very dangerous comparison, but Messi only has three more. Those are scary numbers for a 17-year-old.

There are a couple of arguments at this juncture. The first is that Sullivan has played just over half a season and we shouldn't get all that carried away with numbers. Fine. Good. Honestly? Agreed. If we have learned anything this season, it's that hot streaks are possible under the right circumstances.

The second - and far more devious - is the big ole dangerous question. If Sullivan can do this in 59 percent of available minutes, what would, say, 80 percent look like? What about 90, if we allowed time for injury, substitutions, and a game or two off? Well, that would look something like: 14 goals and 21 assists. That mark would make him the player with the most assists in the league - by a comfortable margin. In this rather dangerous hypothetical world, only Messi would tally more goal contributions.

And it's here that we should slam on the brakes. Hard.

There are a load of reasons why simply extrapolating stats does not work. It is generous to assume that numbers are kept up throughout the course of a whole season. It is even more forgiving to assume that a youngster, still working his way into the adult game, could do so. It also does not account for the other stuff: injuries, game management, suspension, opposition tactical adjustments, perhaps even a change in manager. A season of that magnitude would have to come under absolutely perfect conditions. That does not happen in football. As Tata Martino quite wonderfully put it before this season: "As a manager, your bags are always packed."

This is not to say that Philly Union will hire and fire another manager. Or that Sullivan will rip his knee to shreds. Rather, the broader point is that throwing numbers at a wall and seeing what sticks isn't a fair way of evaluating sports at all - never mind this one. The inherent unpredictability is what makes it fun. Mo Salah set a new record for goal involvements in a 38-game Premier League season in 2024-25. Then, his numbers fell off a cliff, without much indication that they would do so. More pertinently, in MLS, Son has found the net just seven times all season. Most would have had him down for at least double that after last season, where he had nine goals and three assists in just 10 league matches.

There have been signs, too, that Sullivan is not entirely invincible. A little ankle injury saw him miss two games in late October. He was forced off after a heavy challenge against Toronto on decision day (Sullivan scored twice in that game).

It is true, too, that there are perhaps more deserving candidates, on raw data and team impact alone, to be MLS MVP finalists. Charlotte FC fans have every right to be miffed that Pep Biel, the league leader in assists, who played every single game, is not on the list. The same is true of FC Dallas marksman Petar Musa, who bagged 22 goals to fire the Texas side to the No. 2 seed in the West.

And if we're talking shortened seasons, what of Griezmann, who played slightly fewer minutes but tallied 22 goal contributions and helped revive a quite remarkably bad Orlando City side. You could make similar arguments for LAFC's Denis Bouanga, New England Revolution's Carles Gil, and Vancouver's Brian White. Yet simultaneously, there is an equal case for Guilherme or Evander, in particular, to be removed from the top five finalists rather than Sullivan.

We're getting a bit meta here, but MVP voting is never just a spreadsheet. Players, club technical staff and media each get a third of the say. Sullivan's story is compelling. Whether his season belongs among the top five is still a fair debate.

Yet in that note of caution comes a concrete truth: Sullivan's inclusion, even by vibe alone, is a good thing. And, crucially, he can back it up. The United States has a complicated relationship with its young stars. Such is the relative youth of soccer in this nation that fans are too hasty to crown prospects as 'saviors' of the whole system. Freddie Adu is, of course, the poster child. But countless others have been hailed as these messianic footballing figures well before they are ready.

The difference here? Sullivan might just be. In April, there was genuine chatter that Sullivan's credentials as a European-level talent could be under threat. Bradley Carnell, then the Union's manager, was loath to give the youngster too many minutes. Sullivan was on the bench. Philly were losing. Conclusion: Sullivan is not good enough. Of course, that's a bit naive, and footballing careers are hardly ever linear. But it was puzzling to see this talent left out, even as results went south.

There was real adversity for Sullivan. That is a tricky situation to be stuck in, not least due to the fact that he is due to join Man City when he turns 18. If he can't make it work for Philly, how is he supposed to make things happen in the Premier League? Of course, a managerial change helped - not least because Richter has coached Sullivan since he could walk. The football did the talking. Sullivan is back at the top. Nothing to see here.

And now it gets tough. The Union are, rather improbably, in the playoffs. They are a maddeningly inconsistent side. At times - with Milan Ilopski scoring goals, Sullivan providing assists, and a disciplined midfield doing everything in between - they look like one of the best teams in MLS. At others, they are limp and lacking in quality. They were particularly disappointing in a 2-1 loss to New England - their first-round opponent - at the end of October.

This is Sullivan's time to show that he can back up what is a genuinely remarkable rise into MVP contention. If the goals flow, assists come, and moments sparkle during this series, the Union have every chance of upsetting the No. 3 seed in the East. From there, anything can happen. Yet equally, this could be the bit where Sullivan slows down. The minutes are racking up. One or two knocks have appeared. Perhaps the pressure becomes a bit too much for him. Maybe the kid shrinks in the spotlight.

But nothing about his words or his actions suggests that Sullivan will collapse here. Debate his MVP candidacy all you want. That's allowed. But his quality cannot be called into question. And for the Union, for winning games, it's that stuff that really matters.