A bizarre scenario hangs over the market at the World Cup. In the final group match between Algeria and Austria, a situation is likely to arise in which both countries have an interest in NOT winning. In fact: for Austria, a narrow defeat currently even seems more attractive than a draw or a victory.
After two rounds, Argentina is already assured of first place in Group J. The South Americans have six points and, due to the head-to-head result, can no longer be caught by Austria and Algeria, who both have three points. Jordan lost its first two matches and has already been eliminated.
As a result, it is certain that Austria and Algeria will decide between themselves who finishes second and third. A fourth place is no longer a possibility for either country. Both teams beat Jordan, which means that in the event of an equal final standing they will always remain above the Asian team thanks to the head-to-head result.
This creates a remarkable paradox. The runner-up of Group J will in all likelihood face a confrontation with World Cup favourite Spain in the knockout phase, while the third-placed team of Group J will come up against an on-paper weaker other group winner.
For Algeria, the calculation is simple: a victory yields second place and therefore a duel with the winner of the group in which Spain plays. A draw or defeat could instead yield the more attractive third position.
For Austria, the situation is even more striking. The team of national coach Ralf Rangnick currently stands second on goal difference and will have to lose in order to finish definitively behind Algeria and thus drop to third place.
The consequence is that both countries may be pursuing the same goal. Where normally two teams compete for the highest possible ranking, in Kansas City precisely the opposite threatens to happen. The incentive to win the match is limited, while a less favourable result could actually yield a better starting position for the knockout phase.
Because the final round in Group J only begins when all other groups have already been fully played, the scenario will be exactly clear in advance for Algeria and Austria.
Florian Ederer, professor of economics at Boston University and a fanatical Austria supporter, already pointed out the strange dynamic that could arise as a result. Speaking to The Times, Ederer said: “You can get a situation in which it is better for both teams not to win that final match.” On X, Ederer immediately draws the historical comparison. “Mark my words: this is going to be the Disgrace of Kansas City!”
With this, the professor refers to the infamous ‘Disgrace of Gijón’ at the 1982 World Cup: West Germany and Austria knew in advance that both countries would advance if the West Germans won the head-to-head match against Austria by a minimal margin. West Germany quickly took a 1-0 lead in the match through a goal by Horst Hrubesch. What followed after the German goal was the prolonged and shameless passing of the ball around the centre circle.
Afterwards, Algeria protested without success to FIFA, but the match did result in the world football association deciding that the final group matches must henceforth be played on the same day and at the same time.