Four teams - Mexico, United States, Germany and Argentina - have already secured top spot in their group, while a further 14 have earned at least four points, meaning over half of the spots in the knockout rounds are now locked in. There is still plenty to play for in the third round of matches, however, with there set to be mad scramble for the final berths in the last 32, while the likes of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland are continuing to hunt down the Golden Boot.
But who is looking most likely to lift the most famous football trophy of all in New Jersey on July 19? GOAL ranks the chances of all 43 teams whose hopes remain alive in North America...
Previous update: June 18, 2026. Teams eliminated on MD2: Haiti, Turkiye, Tunisia, Jordan & Panama.
Iraq were always going to be up against it in Monday night's meeting with France, but things couldn't have gone much worse for Graham Arnold and his players. Granted, the 3-0 scoreline was by no means embarrassing, but it was immensely frustrating, given they were actually doing well when a shocking defensive mix-up over a goal-kick led to Kylian Mbappe doubling France's lead.
Worse still, Iraq look set to be without captain Aymen Hussein for their must-win meeting with Senegal, after their star striker was forced off through injury in the first half of the game in Philadelphia. It's, thus, hard to see any way back for Arnold's side now.
Fabio Cannavaro's Uzbekistan side gave a good account of themselves in their long-awaited tournament debut against Colombia despite suffering a 3-1 defeat, but they were unable to build upon that when they took on Portugal on Tuesday, and were blown away while shipping five goals in Houston.
And so while they have not been mathematically eliminated, the White Wolves' goal difference means they are going to have to hand out a thrashing to DR Congo if they are to even have any hope of qualifying as one of the best third-placed teams.