Reckless spending and a disastrous start: is De Zerbi's dream turning into a nightmare?

Tottenham's stuttering start cannot be separated from the scale of the changes the team underwent during the transfer window. This was no case of adding a player or two to a settled group. The club reshaped entire sections of the team, bringing 10 new faces to London for enormous investment. Demanding immediate cohesion from that group looks, from a technical standpoint, unrealistic.

Yet the scale of the spending makes the fans more impatient. When you spend more than £300 million, the goal cannot merely be to stay away from the danger zones. Supporters expect a return to the fight for European places, and perhaps a spot back in the Champions League if things go as required.

The current start, then, does not fit in any way with the scale of the project Tottenham launched. It may be easy to view the current figures as merely a bad start that can be overcome. But Tottenham's performance reveals problems deeper than mere bad luck in front of goal.

The team lost to Brentford, then fell to Newcastle, before settling for a draw against Nottingham Forest. The Newcastle result can be explained away as a match that could have gone either way. The defeat to Brentford was clearer. Tottenham looked weak and their opponent deserved the win. Against Forest, the biggest problem showed itself plainly: there is not enough attacking effectiveness.

Tottenham are not last for the number of shots, yet they come bottom of the league for the expected value of a shot. The problem is not only in the number of attempts, but in the quality of the chances the team creates.

The picture grows bleaker when we look at the expected goals rate. Tottenham sit third from bottom in total expected goals. In no match under De Zerbi have they reached the English league's average of around 1.41 expected goals per game.

The crisis, in other words, is not just that the ball refuses to go into the net. It is that the team does not create enough dangerous chances in the first place.

Instability up front lies at the heart of the current crisis. De Zerbi used three different combinations in the front line across his first three league matches this season, and in ten league games in charge of Tottenham he has fielded 10 different players across the three attacking positions.

Chopping and changing this often makes it harder for players to build an understanding, especially when the team leans on a large group of new faces.

Some of the club's most prominent creative players weren't fully ready either. Injuries or a lack of match fitness for the likes of Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison, along with other issues tied to preparation, have denied De Zerbi a settled attacking group to build on.

The coach, then, faces two problems rather than one: scoring goals, and finding the best attacking formula to give the team an identity.

Nor was the upheaval confined to the attack. Tottenham entered the season with a new captain, a largely new defensive line, a different midfield and a reshaped attack. That is why some argue their real start to the campaign should be counted from the end of the transfer window, not the opening round.

That view gives De Zerbi more room to work, because building a team amid this much change takes time. New defender Jan Paul van Hecke arrived in a big deal despite having only one year left on his contract, while De Zerbi made other tough calls over squad members as he tried to assemble a group that fits his ideas.

Judging the project after just three matches, then, may be extremely harsh.

The crisis of cohesion can be explained by the scale of the changes, but the physical numbers open another door to concern. Under De Zerbi last season, Tottenham were a side with a high physical level. No opponent outran them for distance covered on more than one occasion across the seven matches he led that campaign.

This season tells a different story. Tottenham have been outrun physically in all three matches, sitting second from bottom in the league for distance covered while ranking sixteenth for high-speed running distance.

Compare that to last season, when the side ranked among the top five clubs in the league in this metric, and the decline is stark. De Zerbi does not only need to improve the final touch. He must also raise the level of the team's physical work and restore the pressing, movement and pace that are supposed to define his style.

Sacking De Zerbi or questioning his ability to lead the project would be a very premature step, despite the poor start. The Italian has received significant backing from the club's management, and Tottenham have granted him wide powers to build the team according to his vision. Last season was also exceptional in terms of difficulty, with the side close to relegation before they avoided disaster.

All of which buys the coach credit and time. That time is not open without limits, though. The huge spending obliges De Zerbi to start showing clear signs of progress. Tottenham are not required to turn into title challengers overnight, but the team's identity must emerge, the quality of chances must rise, and the new players must begin to gel.

It may be far too early to pass final judgement on Tottenham. With this many changes, the team could need several months to settle on its strongest line-up and identity. That is why some observers reckon the real Tottenham may not surface before November.

This grace period cannot become a cover for mistakes, though. The team must show tangible progress, especially with the club's post-spending ambition being a return to European competition. An ordinary European place should be the bare minimum. Champions League qualification remains the dream.

The clash with Everton lands at an extremely sensitive moment. A win would hand Tottenham more than three points. It would bring confidence, open the door to a fresh start and perhaps ease the pressure on De Zerbi and the new signings. A continued goalscoring drought, on the other hand, could turn a slow start into a genuine crisis.

Keep a clean sheet, and Everton would drag Tottenham to an unwanted record: the first time in their history they have failed to score in the first four matches of a Premier League season. At that point the conversation shifts from "give the team time" to "when should the alarm start?".

The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, it is illogical to judge De Zerbi's project after only three matches, especially since the team's identity has changed almost entirely. Injuries, lack of readiness and the short adaptation period all play their part.

Then again, zero goals after three matches tell their own story. Add the poor quality of chances, the physical decline and the constant reshuffling of the attacking line-up, and you have indicators that cannot be ignored.

Tottenham did not spend 332 million pounds to play another mid-table season. The club paid the price of rebuilding up front. Now it awaits the return on the pitch.

So the real question is not whether Spurs fans should panic after three matches. It is this: how long can the waiting continue before patience turns into genuine concern?

Everton may offer the first hints of an answer. But nothing will be settled until the team stabilises, the injured players regain their sharpness, and De Zerbi finds the combination that turns all this spending from a collection of new names into a side capable of creating goals and wins.

Money can buy players. It cannot buy harmony overnight. Tottenham now face the hardest phase of the project: proving on the pitch that 332 million pounds was part of a plan, and not merely a desperate attempt to escape the past.