73 goals not enough? Kane runs into the Ballon d'Or's harshest rule

France Football magazine launched the Ballon d'Or award in 1956 on the initiative of journalist Gabriel Hanot. The competition was initially restricted to European players. That changed in 1995, when the eligibility criteria expanded to include players of all nationalities.

England's Sir Stanley Matthews claimed the first award, but the World Cup's influence on the Ballon d'Or race showed clearly from the very first years, according to "BBC Sport".

Raymond Kopa became the first player to win the Ballon d'Or in a World Cup year in 1958, having helped drive France to the semi-finals of the tournament.

To mark 60 years since the award's founding, France Football re-evaluated the editions before 1995 in 2016. Their retrospective concluded that Brazilian legend Pelé would have won the award in 1958, after leading his country to its first World Cup title at the age of seventeen.

Josef Masopust officially took the Ballon d'Or four years later, having led Czechoslovakia to the World Cup final. Yet France Football again decided, in its historical review, that Garrincha deserved the award for leading Brazil to retain the World Cup title. The same thing happened with Pelé in 1970, after he played a pivotal role in Brazil's third world title.

A very clear pattern took hold over the years. Bobby Charlton won the Ballon d'Or in a World Cup year in 1966, followed by Paolo Rossi in 1982, Lothar Matthäus in 1990, Zinedine Zidane in 1998, Ronaldo in 2002 and Fabio Cannavaro in 2006. Every one of them was a world champion in the same year.

Even the exceptions fit the pattern. Johan Cruyff won the Ballon d'Or in 1974 after leading the Netherlands to the World Cup final, and Luka Modrić took the award in 2018 after driving Croatia to the final.

Yet winning the World Cup was never an absolute condition for winning the Ballon d'Or. Kevin Keegan took the award in 1978 despite England missing out on the World Cup, only for "France Football" to conclude later that Argentina's Mario Kempes deserved it more, having led his country to the title and finished as the tournament's top scorer. That same historical review named Diego Maradona the most deserving in 1986, and Romario in 1994, both after starring roles at the World Cup.

Those reviews hammered home a simple truth: the World Cup has always exerted an enormous pull on the Ballon d'Or race. "France Football" went as far as to conclude that had the award been open from the start to players of all nationalities, a South American from the World Cup-winning sides would have won every edition between 1958 and 1994.

Major tournaments matter beyond the World Cup, too. The recent history of the Ballon d'Or shows that winning one of the big competitions has become almost a basic requirement. Across the last 19 editions, the winner's record lacked a Champions League, World Cup, European Championship or Copa America title in the year of their crowning on just four occasions.

Those exceptions reveal the exceptional stature Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo reached during their years of dominance. Messi won the Ballon d'Or in 2010 despite Argentina crashing out of the World Cup quarter-finals, and he lifted it again in 2012 and 2019 without a single major international or continental trophy to his name.

Ronaldo did much the same in 2013. He won the award despite Portugal failing to get past the World Cup play-offs, on the back of a stunning individual season in a Real Madrid shirt. History has also thrown up other cases where brilliance simply wasn't enough.

Wesley Sneijder won the treble with Inter Milan and reached the World Cup final in 2010. Franck Ribery drove Bayern Munich to their treble in 2013. Mohamed Salah delivered a record-breaking season with Liverpool in 2017-2018. None of them claimed the award.

Fair or unfair, the Ballon d'Or vote has grown used to rewarding players who leave their mark on the biggest tournaments. And that is precisely where the problem lies for Harry Kane.

Unlike Cristiano Ronaldo in 2014 or Luka Modric in 2018, Kane cannot lean on a Champions League triumph to bolster his case. Bayern Munich's European run ended in the semi-finals, knocked out by a Paris Saint-Germain side who went on to lift the trophy.

Nor will Kane be alone in facing this dilemma. Several rivals boast strong claims of their own, among them Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham, each hunting a chance to break one of the award's most stubborn recent trends.

History plainly favours those who win the major titles. Yet Kane's 2025-2026 season looks different enough to crack open an exceptional scenario. The England striker plundered 73 goals for club and country across the campaign: 61 for Bayern Munich and 12 in an England shirt.

Bayern, meanwhile, claimed the Bundesliga and the German Cup, while England finished third at the World Cup. Widen the historical lens and Kane's numbers only grow more imposing.

Across players representing clubs in Europe's big five leagues, only Lionel Messi has ever bettered Kane's combined club-and-country tally in a single season, striking 82 goals for Barcelona and Argentina in 2011-2012.

That leaves Kane ahead of a string of the game's greats. Gerd Muller managed 72 in 1972-1973. Cristiano Ronaldo hit 66 in both 2011-2012 and 2014-2015, matching Ronaldo Nazario's 66 in 1996-1997. Haaland reached 64 in 2022-2023, the same mark Luis Suarez set in 2015-2016.

Kane, then, does not arrive in this race as a striker who simply enjoyed a good season. He carries rare goalscoring numbers that rank him among the most prolific players in modern football history.

But the numbers alone may not settle it. Rodri looms as one of the most prominent challengers to Kane, especially after outstanding performances with Spain during the tournament earned him the World Cup's best player award. He also drove his country to a second world title.

Lamine Yamal enters the race strongly too. He added a World Cup medal to a distinguished season with Barcelona, helping the club reclaim the La Liga title. His young teammate Pau Cubarsí, meanwhile, won the FIFA award for best young player after a series of remarkable displays throughout the campaign.

Expect Kylian Mbappé and Lionel Messi to command plenty of attention as well. Mbappé finished the World Cup as its top scorer with 10 goals, claimed the UEFA Champions League scoring crown, and topped the La Liga charts, all despite France's failure to reach the final and Real Madrid ending the season without a major trophy.

Messi, for his part, kept writing history with Argentina. He led them to a second consecutive World Cup final and scored eight goals in the tournament, all in his thirty-ninth year.

Those achievements leave voters facing a complex equation. Should the award go to the most prolific goalscorer? Or to the player who achieved the greatest collective success? Or will a blend of the two prove decisive?

Win the Ballon d'Or, and Harry Kane walks through the widest doors in English football history. He would become only the fifth English player to be crowned after Stanley Matthews, Bobby Charlton, Kevin Keegan and Michael Owen. He would also be the first player from a German league club to lift the award since Matthias Sammer in 1996.

The greater feat, though, lies in breaking a pattern that has gripped the award for decades. History hands Kane no clear advantage. If anything, it throws one of the toughest obstacles in his path. Yet few players have entered the race carrying an individual file this size in front of goal.

Everything now rests with the voters. Is one of the most prolific goalscoring seasons of the modern era enough to change the rules of the game? Or will the Ballon d'Or keep rewarding the men who win the major titles, leaving Kane's individual brilliance locked out of glory once more?

Their verdict decides it all. Kane becomes either the owner of a historic goalscoring season, or a new name on the exclusive list of Ballon d'Or legends.