Wolverhampton Wanderers meet Swansea City at Molineux in the Third Round of the FA Cup on Saturday afternoon.
The hosts are 12 points clear at the top of the Championship while the visitors are four points adrift of Premier League safety, so we have the unusual situation of a second-tier side being odds-on to defeat a top-flight outfit.
Match odds
Wolves are 5/6 (1.83) for a remarkable 23rd victory of the season in all competitions, having allied their league dominance with a run to the Fourth Round of the EFL Cup before they were knocked out on penalties against Manchester City.
A third consecutive draw between these sides is 12/5 (3.6) – although we are unlikely to see a repeat of the 4-4 at the Liberty in April 2012, when Swansea threw away a three-goal lead.
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The Swans, now led by former Sheffield Wednesday head coach Carlos Carvalhal, are 7/2 (4.5) to progress to the Fourth Round by recording back-to-back away wins for the first time since August.
Team News
Oliver McBurnie made an impact from the bench in Swansea's previous triumph on the road, a 2-1 win at Watford, and the Scot could start here with fellow strikers Wilfried Bony and Tammy Abraham potentially absent through injury. Ki Sung-Yeung may also miss out due to a calf strain, while Angel Rangel is being assessed following a knock.
The Wolves squad has not been hit by injuries, but given that eight of their players started four games in a 10-day festive period, heavy rotation should be expected.
The case for the Swans
Swansea are priced as bigger outsiders than League One Shrewsbury Town are against Premier League West Ham United and with second string sides looking plausible in both camps, we see value in siding with the visitors.
They are 4/6 (1.67) to keep their opponents down to under 1.5 goals, which they have done in nine of their 10 games against bottom half Premier League sides. An eighth clean sheet of the season in all competitions is 3/1 (4.0) or as a speculative punt, whilst McBurnie to score in a 1-0 away win can be found at 45/1 (46.0) .
Tips and predictions
Our best bet, though, is the Swansea or draw double chance, which is available at 10/11 (1.91) and will land if they avoid defeat at Molineux.
Wolves are having an excellent season in the Championship, yet it remains to be seen how they will perform in the FA Cup when the majority of first team players are rested while the Swans might be on the cusp of a honeymoon period under their new boss.
The likelihood of wholesale changes from both head coaches means the away side might have a better chance than the odds suggest.
Swansea or Draw at 10/11 (1.91) for a 2pt stake with Paddy Power 
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