Why Lampard's Everton are in real danger of relegation

Tottenham Hotspur’s Harry Kane-inspired 3-2 victory over Manchester City was one of the stories of the season, blowing the title race wide open and necessarily relegating other Premier League news to little more than a footnote.

However, on any other weekend, the headline would have been the battle to avoid the drop opening up. 

Wins for Watford and Burnley continued a surprising run of form among the four clubs most had presumed would be mired at the foot of the table.

Over their last five matches combined, Newcastle United, Norwich City, Watford, and Burnley have won seven and drawn six, collecting 26 points from 20 games. 

All of a sudden, Leeds, Brentford, and Everton, are looking nervously over their shoulders, and what should most worry those clubs is that the form of the bottom four looks set to continue. 

In their own separate ways, each is getting their tactical act together at just the right time.

Watford’s 1-0 victory over Aston Villa was the first sign that the tried-and-tested methods of Roy Hodgson will come good. 

His training sessions are notoriously dull and repetitive, involving hour upon hour of work on defensive shape as the players shuffle across in a 4-4-2 – staying rigidly compact at all times. 

Consequently, that first win – the first evidence the tedium is worth it – was a huge moment for Watford.

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For the rest of the campaign, they will follow Hodgson’s simple methods: sit right back, concede possession and territory, and invite the opposition to try to penetrate those stubborn banks of four. 

From here, the simple counterattacking strategy will involve long passes into the channels for wingers Emmanuel Dennis and Ismaila Sarr.

Dennis and Sarr are very talented players, as we saw in their repeated threat at Villa Park last weekend, and perfect for the Hodgson method. 

Even accounting for their 4-1 loss at home to Crystal Palace – a game in which Watford's expected goals figure was twice that of their visitors (1.5 to 0.7) – Hornets fans should remain optimistic about their hopes of survival with such an experienced manager in charge.

Burnley can similarly boast experience and, like Watford, their big win at Brighton the weekend really is beginning to look like a significant turning point, given it was followed up a shock success over Spurs.

The impression is that Wout Weghorst, who opened his Premier League account at the Amex, will make the telling difference for a Burnley side that, by and large, have only missed a finishing touch this season.

Their underlying numbers remain similar to previous campaigns under Sean Dyche.

Compared to last season, when Burnley finished 11 points above the dotted line, there is a negligible difference between their total shots (10.5 per game, up from 10.1), chances created (7.8 per game, up from 7.2), and big chances (1.3 per game, down from 1.4), per Opta. 

A clinical Weghorst, then, is the final piece in the jigsaw and a clear indication Burnley – with two games in hand on their rivals – are stronger than they look.

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Newcastle United’s January signings have altered things considerably and even after losing Kieran Trippier, there is enough quality in the ranks to get out of trouble following a run of 10 points from the last four games.

The new signings appear to have sparked a surge in confidence, in turn allowing Eddie Howe’s more progressive tactical ideas to take hold as the players push up and begin to assert themselves on opponents.

The former Bournemouth manager has found that a 4-3-3 provides the right balance for his hard-pressing system, in which central midfielders Joe Willock and Joelinton are leading the charge with an aggression that has lifted Newcastle notably up the pitch.

Finally, even Norwich City are no longer the pushovers they once were. 

Putting aside their last two games – inevitable defeats against Liverpool and Manchester City – Norwich have looked much stronger since Dean Smith shifted his approach.

Having initially looked to continue Daniel Farke’s ideas of expansive possession-based football, Smith put together a three-match winning streak by dropping Norwich into a very deep formation and looking to play on the break. 

It is exactly what he did at Aston Villa for the final few matches of the 2019-20 season when Villa scraped over the line with an ultra-defensive system, and while Norwich will probably still go down, they will keep picking up points.

All of which opens up the trap door to teams hovering dangerously just above those bottom four, with Leeds and Brentford generally considered to be the most vulnerable. 

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Marcelo Bielsa’s tactics have been undermined by crucial injuries, and although Kalvin Phillips will be back in a couple of weeks, Patrick Bamford is still a long way away from returning.

Without an adequate replacement up front, Leeds have lost a significant attacking threat, turning the calculated risk of hard-pressing football into something reckless: defensively open, without the counter-balance of goals. 

Wednesday's 6-0 rout at Liverpool – which perfectly illustrated the perils of their adventurous approach – forced Bielsa to admit that his side is very much mired in a relegation battle.

However, the Argentine's brilliant mind, and the continued faith and togetherness within the squad, suggests they will at least maintain their current points-per-game average and do enough to survive.

Brentford are in free-fall, but with Christian Eriksen and Ivan Toney back soon Thomas Frank should see an upturn in results. 

After all, they were hugely impressive in the first third of the season and look well-placed for a small resurgence before May.

That brings us onto Everton, the team currently fifth from bottom, staring down at four teams with a tactical vision that looks a lot more coherent than their own.

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Frank Lampard has not got off to the best start.

His team looks as defensively vulnerable and as open in central midfield as we might have expected watching his Chelsea team, although that may simply be a hangover from the previous regime.

Lampard’s backroom staff has changed and he has spent a year out of the game to hone his craft. 

Everton fans need to hope that means a different manager, because the early signs conform with our expectation: that an Everton team with a shoddy defence should not have hired a manager who historically cannot organise one.

His early preference for a two-man midfield has been worrying, with Newcastle United and Southampton dominating centrally in their wins.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Everton have a very tough set of fixtures remaining – including games against all of the current top eight.

Of all the clubs fighting the drop, Everton ought to be in the strongest position of all, and yet as the tactical battle plans of their rivals form with increasing clarity, the Toffees have never looked closer to dropping out of the top flight.