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Naive Newcastle blew it! Champions League implosion shows Eddie Howe's pretenders are not ready for the elite stage yet

Newcastle marked their first home game in the Champions League since 2003 in some style, thrashing Paris Saint-Germain 4-1 in front of a rocking St James' Park crowd. It was a result that sent shockwaves through the entire footballing world, and one that ensured Eddie Howe's side sat top of Group F with four points after two matches.

That fateful October night should have been the start of something special. The Magpies returned to Europe's flagship competition after a 20-year absence on the back of a hard-earned fourth place Premier League finish in 2022-23, only to be cruelly drawn against PSG, AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund.

After overpowering the French champions in such impressive fashion, for an all-too brief moment, Newcastle looked like they could defy all the odds by winning the so-called 'Group of Death'. PSG have underachieved in the Champions League for many years, but very few teams have blown them away, or indeed managed to keep Kylian Mbappe quiet.

From that position, Newcastle really should have qualified for the last-16, or at the very least secured a third-place spot that would have seen them playing Europa League football in the new year. Alas, by the end of their last group game against Milan, their continental dream was up in smoke, with second-half goals from Christian Pulisic and Samuel Chukwueze giving the Italian giants a 2-1 victory on Tyneside.

The question is: how did it all go so wrong? Well, there is no doubt that bad luck played a role, with controversial VAR decisions and an unprecedented injury crisis forcing Howe to rip up his usual playbook.

But the reality is, Newcastle only have themselves to blame for a disastrous end to their European campaign, and more misery will be on the cards unless Howe takes drastic measures to address their alarming recent decline...

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    Missed opportunity

    "It's not beyond our wildest dreams because we did have some wild dreams." The famous words of the late Sir Bobby Robson were displayed on a huge banner for the whole Newcastle squad to see in the Gallowsgate End just before kick-off against Milan on Wednesday night, which combined with the iconic Champions League anthem, provided the players with an injection of pure motivation.

    They rose to the occasion initially, with Joelinton's 33rd minute thunderbolt deservedly giving Newcastle the lead and putting them in the driving seat for the runners' up spot in the group. There was another huge roar from the crowd early in the second-half, too, as news filtered through of Karim Adeyemi's opener for Borussia Dortmund against PSG at Signal Iduna Park.

    PSG swiftly got themselves level via a goal from 17-year-old sensation Warren Zaïre-Emery, but at that stage, Newcastle just had to stay calm and protect their advantage. They'd done a good job of holding off Milan and the general mood in the stands at St James' Park was still one of optimism.

    But only a few minutes later, Milan were level, with USMNT star Christian Pulisic turning a clever pass from Oliver Giroud into the net from close range. Newcastle allowed Rafael Leao to get in behind on the left-flank for the initial cross into the box far too easily, and their static defence was duly punished.

    That goal changed the entire dynamic of the night for Newcastle, who then had no choice but to get on the front-foot and go all-out for the crucial winning goal that would give them fresh hope of qualification for the last-16. They had their moments, with Bruno Guimaraes coming agonisingly close to scoring with a fine curling effort from outside the box that was tipped onto the bar by Milan goalkeeper Mike Maignan, but the Serie A side always looked ready to hit again on the counter.

    Newcastle survived one scare as Leao struck the post after being played through on-one-one with Martin Dubravka, but with just seven minutes remaining, Milan got their inevitable second goal. The Rossoneri turned defence to attack in the blink of an eye once again, and this time Chukwueze provided the finish, brilliantly placing a first time-shot into the far corner.

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    'Small margins'

    "The save at 1-1, how close it is to going in, they are small margins," Howe said in a defiant tone at his post-match press conference. "I don't think we have been outplayed in any game -- the Dortmund game could have been different, but that's the elite element of the game at this level.

    "I feel for the players. I have seen what they've given. We weren't at our absolute best tonight. It's painful for me and them because I know how much they have put in."

    Newcastle certainly weren't "outplayed" in their third group game against Dortmund, hitting the woodwork twice in the dying minutes before falling to a shock 1-0 defeat, but the visitors were more streetwise. The same was true for the return fixture in Germany, which saw BVB run out 2-0 winners thanks to goals from Niclas Fullkrug and Julian Brandt.

    Howe's men bounced back from those losses with a battling performance against PSG at the Parc des Princes, which saw Mbappe break their hearts with a 98th minute equaliser from the penalty spot after Tino Livramento was harshly penalised for handball. To have three points snatched away in such controversial fashion was a bitter pill to swallow for the Magpies, but in truth, the 1-1 draw was the least PSG deserved after boasting 72 percent possession and 31 shots.

    Newcastle also played with their backs against the wall on matchday one as they held Milan to a 0-0 stalemate, after perhaps giving their opponents a bit too much respect. That lack of bravery going forward in away fixtures ultimately proved costly.

    The only time Howe really let his team off the leash for a full 90 minutes was in the 4-1 demolition of PSG on their own soil, and he must take a large portion of blame for reverting to a safety-first approach in subsequent matches. Newcastle should never have been going into their final game relying on a result from elsewhere, with Milan eventually able to pick them off when desperation set in.

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    Champions League rookies

    The manner of Newcastle's loss to Milan was excruciating, but the final result was not a surprise to anyone that watched their last two Premier League games. Heavy defeats at Everton and Tottenham have left the Magpies languishing down in seventh in the table, seven points behind fourth-placed Manchester City, and Howe has a huge task on his hands to plug the gaps at the back.

    He has not been helped by a mounting injury list, to which Kieran Trippier and Anthony Gordon were added in midweek. Eight senior players missed what turned out to be Newcastle's final Champions League game, with Nick Pope, Joe Willock, Matt Targett, Jacob Murphy, and Harvey Barnes among those who could be sidelined until the new year.

    When quizzed on the situation, Howe told reporters: "We have gone into Champions League games without key players due to injuries and that has hurt us. We've learned so much. The value of the squad, first and foremost, is what has exposed us. The fact we haven't had the ability to utilise the squad we've created... We've gone into games very limited in what we can do, and that hasn't helped us."

    The 10-month suspension of club-record signing Sandro Tonali for betting offences was also a huge blow, but Newcastle's European implosion cannot be put down solely to a depleted squad. For the most part, they looked like rookies on the Champions League stage, and opposing teams took advantage of their naivety.

    Howe's lack of experience at the very highest level was highlighted, too, with Luis Enrique, Edin Terzic and Stefano Pioli all getting the better of the Englishman in the tactical stakes. Newcastle had their destiny in their own hands after thrashing PSG, but lacked the know-how to finish the job, and it is essential that they learn from what has been a brutal, exhausting experience.

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    Step up in class

    Newcastle did, at least, go down fighting against Milan in search of all three points, as they refused to accept the consolation prize of a Europa League berth after being pulled back to 1-1. For the first time since their home rout of PSG, the Magpies threw caution to the wind and took some risks in the final third, with the Rossoneri somewhat fortunate not to concede another goal or two.

    But it was also alarming how wasteful, and at times completely ineffective Newcastle's star attackers were. Callum Wilson led the line with Miguel Almiron and Anthony Gordon providing support on the flanks, but none of them made any meaningful impact on proceedings.

    Alexander Isak also struggled after replacing Gordon on the hour mark, with Newcastle's lack of clinical edge ultimately proving to be their undoing in Europe. Indeed, Wilson, Almiron, Gordon and Isak only shared two goals between them during the entire group stage, which suggests that the step up in class from the Premier League to the Champions League was too much.

    Wilson and Isak have both scored seven times in the top-fight this season, while Gordon has racked up nine goal contributions to put himself in contention for a place in Gareth Southgate's England squad. Their failure to replicate those numbers in continental competition led to Newcastle posting just six goals in the group stage; only Celtic, Milan and Red Bull Salzburg managed fewer.

    Newcastle need more firepower if they are to get back into the Champions League next season and win their first major trophy since 1955, with the Carabao Cup and FA Cup both still up for grabs. However, it remains to be seen whether the club's Saudi-backed owners give Howe another war chest in January, with questions likely to be asked over his position if the Magpies don't finish the year with a run of positive results.

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    What's next?

    Newcastle missed out on a £9m bonus after failing to reach the Champions League last-16, along with the matchday income from at least one more home game and merit-based broadcast revenue, which together would have amounted to at least another £12m - as per The Athletic.

    That money would have also helped to lift their Financial Fair Play ceiling in the winter transfer window, having come very close to reaching the limit in the summer. Newcastle sporting director Dan Ashworth has admitted that the club will now have to be "quite creative" in order to bolster their squad for the second half of the season, which likely means the exploration of two or three loan deals.

    Out-of-favour Manchester City midfielder Kalvin Phillips has been mooted as an option to fill the void left by Tonali, while Newcastle have also been linked with Al-Hilal playmaker Ruben Neves. The Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) are also majority owners of Al-Hilal, with the path clear for a Neves deal to be done due to Premier League's decision not to block loans to linked parties.

    It has been reported that the Magpies will also prioritise the signing of a new forward and a centre-back, while ex-Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea is said to be under consideration to provide extra cover for injured No.1 Pope. But if Newcastle are unable to make any significant changes, all the hard work Howe has done over the past two seasons could be undone.

    There is certainly now a real possibility that the Tyneside outfit will not get another chance at making a mark on the Champions League in 2023-24. Two major European nations will be given a fifth qualifying spot ahead of the revamped tournament format that will see 36 teams compete in one big group in the opening phase, and the Premier League was initially in line for one of them.

    The best performing leagues will be determined by the average coefficient of clubs participating in Europe, but Manchester United suffered the same fate as Newcastle in Group A, leaving only Arsenal and Manchester City to fly the Champions League flag for England. The Premier League's coefficient has dropped to third as it stands, behind Germany and Italy, which means they need their other clubs to enjoy deep runs in order to build up bonus points, with Liverpool, Brighton and Aston Villa also still alive in the Europa League.

    In their current guise, Newcastle will still fancy their chances of finishing fifth, but the gulf in quality between them and the clubs occupying the four main Champions League places right now is too great. Howe is facing the biggest test of his St James' Park career to date, and it remains to be seen if he can come up with the answers.

    Another defeat when Fulham arrive at Newcastle's famous ground on Saturday could leave him on the brink. The famous humbling of PSG just three months ago already feels like a distant memory, and it's clear that even with their new-found financial might, the Magpies are still a long way from reaching the very top.