AFPThe Italian national team still clings to a very slim hope of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, to be held in the United States, Canada and Mexico, despite their disappointing exit from the European play-off final at the hands of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
Following a 4-1 defeat on penalties in the play-off final, the Azzurri will miss out on the World Cup for the third consecutive time, but is there a chance to change this fate?
The Italian national team’s only chance of featuring in the tournament, which takes place next summer, lies in the Iranian team withdrawing from the competition, as uncertainty surrounds their participation due to ongoing tensions with the United States, one of the tournament’s host nations.
According to the French network RMC Sport, some Italian fans have begun to dream of the possibility of a technical qualification should Iran announce its withdrawal from the tournament, though this seems almost impossible.
Some believe that if Iran does not participate in the 2026 World Cup, Italy could be called upon to replace them and join Group G, which includes Belgium, New Zealand and Egypt, given that the Azzurri are the highest-ranked team among those that have not qualified.
In February, the United States and the Zionist entity carried out a joint missile strike on Iran, resulting in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
These developments have raised doubts about Iran’s participation in the World Cup, particularly following comments by the Iranian Minister of Sport, who indicated that his country “does not have the capacity to participate”.
US President Donald Trump also called on Iran to withdraw “for its own safety”. He wrote on Truth Social: “The Iranian team is welcome at the World Cup, but I do not believe it is appropriate for them to participate, for the sake of their safety.”
Iran responded angrily to these remarks, insisting that it “cannot be excluded” and suggesting that the United States withdraw instead.
However, the Iranian Ministry of Sport subsequently issued a firm statement that raised doubts, announcing an official decision to ban all national sports teams and delegations from travelling to countries classified by Tehran as “hostile”, until further notice.
However, Iran’s position in its group remains unchanged; the Iranian national team qualified on the pitch through the AFC qualifiers and still hopes to take part in the tournament. Furthermore, FIFA and its president, Gianni Infantino, currently have no intention of excluding Iran from the competition.
FIFA has confirmed its support for Iran’s participation, with recent discussions between the Iranian delegation and Infantino indicating that the plan for the Iranian national team to take part in the tournament remains in place, including playing their matches in the United States.
Infantino stated on the sidelines of a friendly match between Iran and Costa Rica in Turkey on Tuesday that the Asian side will take part in the tournament and that there is no alternative plan.
Furthermore, the idea of moving Iran’s matches to Mexico is not currently on the table. Consequently, there is currently no chance of Italy being reinstated.
The Iranian national team is scheduled to begin its World Cup campaign on 16 June against New Zealand, before facing Belgium in California and then taking on Egypt at Lumen Field in Seattle.
Should Iran announce its withdrawal days or weeks before the tournament kicks off – a distinct possibility given the geopolitical circumstances – FIFA would find itself facing an organisational and logistical crisis.
However, according to RMC Sport, the prevailing view is to replace Iran with an Asian team, in order to maintain the balance of places between the continents and ensure that the distribution of teams is not disrupted.
Although the regulations do not explicitly oblige FIFA to do so, this option is considered the most logical.
Article 6, paragraph 7, states that “in the event of the withdrawal or disqualification of a participating association, FIFA shall have full authority to take the appropriate decision, including replacing the team with another”.
The Asian Football Confederation remains in constant contact with FIFA in anticipation of any developments, although the possibility of Iran’s withdrawal remains unconfirmed at this stage.
Reinstating Italy would mean granting Europe an additional place, which could provoke objections from the other continents, particularly as the European Union already holds the largest number of places in the tournament (16 teams out of 55 associations).
Given the political nature of the allocation of places in the World Cup, FIFA seeks to maintain a balance between the continents, which significantly reduces, if not eliminates, Italy’s chances of participating.
By this logic, the UAE could be one of the leading candidates to replace Iran, should the latter withdraw.
Following Iraq’s qualification via the intercontinental play-off at the expense of Bolivia (2-1), the UAE is considered the best Asian team not to have qualified for the tournament. As such, it may be the most likely option should this scenario unfold.
However, everything remains dependent on developments in the Iranian situation and FIFA’s final decision, leaving the door open, albeit slightly, to several teams, including the UAE and even Italy, although the latter’s chances appear extremely slim.
