Jonathan David must deliver, Alphonso Davies may return: Five keys to Canada vs Qatar

When the ball hit the back of the net for Bosnia and Herzegovina's first goal in the opening match, it created a tall task for Canada. Never in the now 31 games under Marsch have they come back from allowing the first goal to win within 90 minutes. As much as the Cyle Larin goal and draw sparked celebrations, it still felt like two points dropped for the Canadian side.

Scoring first, regardless of method, is vital for Canada, which expects to get plenty of chances against a Qatar side that gave up 3.2 expected goals and 26 shots against Switzerland despite playing to a 1-1 draw.

Much of that could come down to the finishing of Jonathan David, who struggled against Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as whichever forward is alongside him, whether it's Larin, the opening-day hero, or the tenacious Tani Oluwaseyi, who creates attacking spaces but has largely struggled to finish.

Canada is 7-0-3 under Marsch in 90 minutes when scoring first, making it a must against Qatar.

Maybe there's some good news in that. Canada's last match in Vancouver was a 6-0 rout of Honduras.

"Goals are gonna be hard to come by. It's not something that we're not aware of," right back Alistair Johnston said. "So, it's gonna be really important that you get an early goal, and then if we do, then we know that teams are playing on our terms, having to open up a bit more. That really opens up more space for us, which kind of plays into our hands."

If Canada hopes to get that first goal, 41 million Canadians are hoping it comes from Jonathan David. The Juventus striker is the first of those millions who want it to happen.

He wasn't good in the opening match, missing a clear chance in the first half and struggling to create while also enduring difficult moments in front of goal. While he scored twice from the penalty spot in a friendly against Iceland in March, he hasn't scored an open-play goal for the country since September.

Yet, even as noise grew around his poor form this week, he looked exceptionally calm in training sessions, and his finishing in low-pressure drills was automatic, barely missing a shot.

On Monday, he appeared calm. On Tuesday, he was the center of attention, smiling as he went through the early and late stages of the sessions.

"With a guy like Johnny, people get too hung up on the goals and assists. For me, at the end of the day, he's just a really talented footballer," Johnston said. "When he's at his best, it's not necessarily contributing to the goal ... The spaces that he picks up, how he sees the game, and how he feels the game are unique to anyone in our nation, to be honest."

Looking at the positive side of his performance against Bosnia and Herzegovina, he at least got chances in a way he hasn't for months. That's a good sign and an example of why Oluwaseyi could be a better starting fit than Larin, given how he opens up spaces for David to exploit. If the Juventus man gets those chances, though, he'll have to score, or things could become even more difficult for the Canadian attack.

His teammates are still confident in him, and he remains Canada's most consistent and historic goal threat. The question now is whether this Qatar match could be the spark that gets him going, potentially setting Canada up for a deeper run.

The day after learning that Canada would play Qatar at December's World Cup draw in Washington, D.C., Marsch got on a plane to Doha to take in the team's matches at the Arab Cup. When the team arrived in Vancouver on Sunday, he wasn't on the plane. Rather, he was in Santa Clara, California, watching Qatar's impressive 1-1 draw with Switzerland.

At this point, Marsch has seen plenty of Qatar and even suggested that the friendlies against both Ireland and Uzbekistan better resembled what Canada could see against the Middle Eastern side.

One aspect he'll have come across is how poorly Qatar deals with wide areas and players cutting inside. At the same time, the 2022 host nation also struggles to deal with physicality. Wide play, combined with a ferocious physical presence, tends to define Canada's attack, potentially making it a perfect fit to beat Qatar's defense.

"I think it's the edge that teams are looking for right now," Laryea said. "It's about being aggressive. We're always on the front foot, so I think that coincides pretty well with getting in people's faces and playing aggressively."

Playing in a 4-2-3-1, Qatar tends to focus primarily on the center of the pitch but struggles to defend against speed and diagonal runs on the inside. For Canada to best exploit that, Tajon Buchanan could move to the left from his usual right-wing spot, while Ali Ahmed or a predominantly left-sided winger could shift to the right, changing up the runs and emphasizing cut-ins.

Fullbacks, like Laryea, could also be key to creating wide overloads, where Qatar's players, all but one of whom play in the Qatar Stars League, could be overwhelmed because they don't regularly face that type of speed or pressing.

For as physical and imposing as Canada can be, the game model and approach can falter in tournament settings, where red cards or accumulated yellow cards can mean missing a critical player for important matches. At this tournament, yellow cards are wiped after the group stage, but an already-carded player could pick up another and miss the Switzerland match.

It's a decision Canada will have to ponder after both Johnston and 20-year-old center back Luc De Fougerolles picked up cautions against Bosnia and Herzegovina, both of whom are physically imposing defenders.

At right back, that could mean Hajduk Split's Niko Sigur could slide in for Johnston. It would mark Sigur's World Cup debut at the stadium where he once served as a ball boy when Canada beat French Guiana in a Concacaf Nations League match at the venue when he was 15. It would be a stark contrast to the imposing atmosphere expected Thursday.

Sigur has played 19 games for Canada at right back, largely filling in at the position while Johnston nursed several hamstring injuries with Celtic FC that kept him out of the CanMNT for several windows. There isn't much drop-off there, and saving Johnston for the test against Switzerland could be the call. It also wouldn't change Canada's swagger-filled approach to the position or the stakes of the match.

"We've discussed the yellow cards that we have, and we talked about the yellow cards that Qatar has," Sigur said. "I don't think it's always a bad thing to play with arrogance in the right way or to use that confidence that we've played with. I think we're at our best when we play with that swagger."

The decision is tougher with De Fougerolles. Simply, Canada doesn't have healthy depth at center back, and the drop to their next fully healthy option would be Chicago Fire FC's Joel Waterman, a player with just 17 international minutes.

Alphonso Davies' status is shrouded in mystery. After giving regular updates through the past three weeks, Canada Soccer remained quiet Tuesday, neither confirming nor denying that Davies was still in "return to play" status, as he has been for weeks, while working with a German trainer as part of a plan involving the athlete, Canada Soccer and Bayern Munich.

Initially, Davies' latest hamstring injury, suffered in May, was expected to take four to six weeks to heal. It's now been six weeks since he suffered the injury in the UEFA Champions League semifinal, and there remains a possibility that he could see game action.

In what was visible to the media this week, Davies wore cleats and joined his teammates for the first 15 minutes of each session, a progression from last week in Toronto.

"He's been very serious about this tournament," said Eustáquio on Tuesday. "He has to be 100 percent ... Hopefully he can get back as quickly as possible."

Regardless, the entire 26-man roster is technically available for selection in every match, and there is a possibility of seeing the star left back make a brief substitute appearance if Canada needs him late in the game. If things are going well, expect Marsch to give him another week to recover before throwing him in against Switzerland.