The CONCACAF W Championship showdown between the US Women’s National Team and Mexico was the matchup soccer fans had circled on the schedule since fixtures were announced.
However, most pundits expected to see a clash between two unbeaten teams racing to clinch a berth in the 2023 World Cup.
Instead, we have a vastly different situation on our hands: Mexico desperate for a victory on their home turf, while the United States has already secured their trip to the World Cup.
The match may not be the dramatic confrontation many were hoping for, but the circumstances may still lead to an exciting game with La Tri frantic for a victory.
Let’s examine how each team arrived here and investigate some of the CONCACAF W bets available for USA-Mexico.
USWNT vs Mexico Fixture Odds
- 3-way handicap: USWNT (-10000) / Draw (+1000) / Mexico (+3300)
- Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-1000) / Under 2.5 (+490)
USWNT vs. Mexico odds are current as of 9 a.m. EST on July 9 at PointsBet Sportsbook.
USWNT vs. Mexico: News & Matchups to Watch
United States CONCACAF W: Catching Up
The USWNT enters the contest against El Tri Feminil, having already clinched a berth in the 2023 World Cup by winning their first two matches against Haiti and Jamaica.
Alex Morgan, who entered the CONCACAF W Championship as the National Women’s Soccer League’s leading scorer, nearly completed a hat trick Monday in the opening match against Haiti if not for an offside penalty.
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The 33-year-old scored her first goal off a beautiful assist from Mallory Pugh. Morgan skillfully redirected the pass in front of the net with pinpoint precision off her back heel. She added a second goal after converting a header at the 23-minute mark.
Morgan, along with Megan Rapinoe, has been away from the USWNT since October before returning for friendlies against Colombia in late June. Their presence provides the already lethal United States side with another dimension to their attack. In addition, Morgan should be in the lineup against La Tri after sitting out to rest in the USA’s match with Jamaica.
Rapinoe entered the showdown against Haiti as a reserve at the 74-minute mark and quickly made an impact by creating scoring opportunities for the USWNT, nearly collecting an assist that the video assistant referee reversed.
The extent of the 37-year-old’s immediate role with the United States squad is ambiguous, given her extensive layoff and absence from the USWNT’s second CONCACAF Championship match against Jamaica.
Rapinoe missed the contest to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom at the White House on Thursday.
Despite being a sentimental favorite, due to unknown restrictions and projected playing time, it would be unwise to invest in a Rapinoe prop bet against Mexico. However, it should not be surprising if the veteran superstar left her mark during the match.
The United States went with a 4-4-2 formation led by Sophia Smith and Pugh in their match against Jamaica.
Smith did not waste the opportunity, converting a brace within the first 8 minutes, including a beautiful drive and finish off the outside of her right boot.
The 21-year-old was aggressive with Morgan off the pitch, becoming the third USWNT player to score a brace within the first 8 min of a match in the last 20 years, joining Carli Lloyd and Tiffeny Milbrett.
Pugh, who notched an assist late in the game against Jamaica, nearly had her first goal on a perfect back cross pass from Sofia Huerta, but the attempt was called back offside after review.
Ashley Sanchez, who also had an assist against Jamaica, may earn a spotlight versus La Tri due to her athletic dribbling and ability to create opportunities. The center midfielder can win 1-on-1 confrontations with defenders and has solid long-shot value to score against Mexico.
Mexico CONCACAF W: Catching Up
Team Mexico opened their CONCACAF Group A schedule by suffering back-to-back losses on home soil at the hands of Jamaica and Haiti. However, most pundits expected Mexico to walk into their match with the USWNT undefeated in what many hoped would be a breakout showing in Group A.
The lone goal in Mexico’s 0-1 loss to Jamaica belonged to Manchester City’s Bunny Shaw, the nation's all-time leading scorer. After that, however, La Tri allowed a trio of goals against an underrated Haiti squad that included a pair of penalty kick conversions.
Monica Vergara, team Mexico’s manager, decided to start Rebeca Bernal and Casandra Montero at center back against Jamaica, which was not a combination La Tri had deployed before.
The lack of comfort and familiarity with the new strategy may have caused issues with the Mexican side. That said, the team had plenty of chances during the match versus the Jamaica side, including a 15th-minute header by Diana Ordóñez that caught the goal post.
However, La Tri parlayed their struggles into Thursday's match, in which the offense failed to break through Haiti’s defensive block.
Things would get only worse for Mexico after Bernal, the team’s top defender, was carted off the field late in the second half after a brutal collision near the goal line. The injury was immediately followed by Greta Espinoza receiving a red card moments later, leaving Mexico down one player for the remainder of the match.
The extent of Bernal’s injuries is currently unknown, but her absence would be a tough blow heading into the team’s must-win game against the USWNT.
Most pundits felt the Mexican side simply had an off game against Jamaica but proved their struggles were not isolated in their 3-0 loss to Haiti.
USWNT vs. Mexico Prediction
USWNT 4, Mexico 1
Victory for the United States seems all but guaranteed at this point. The only question is how motivated the USWNT will be after having already clinched a spot in the World Cup in what is a do-or-die game for Mexico.
Still, all sportsbooks have the United States as the heavy favorite leading into their showdown with El Tri Femenil. Don’t expect a competitive contest.
The USWNT allowed plenty of scoring opportunities to Haiti in their opening match, something on which Mexico arguably would have likely capitalized in the same situation. That included a botched penalty kick by Roselord Borgella, which she would rectify in their matchup with Mexico.
There was concern that team USA may have issues holding off speedy attackers against their back line. However, that group completely shut down Shaw during their clean sheet versus Jamaica, led by the efforts of Alana Cook and Naomi Girma.
La Tri will need the home crowd to motivate them in a must-win situation, but Mexico frankly could not find a way to break through the defensive lines of Jamaica and Haiti, and there is no reason to believe that they will somehow improve against the USWNT.
It is challenging to hang your hat on any outcome other than a United States victory. The USWNT, entering Monday’s game with Mexico, has now won 28 consecutive matches in competitive CONCACAF tournaments dating back to 2010. During that stretch, they have outscored their opponents 144-0.
I would expect a fair number of substitutions from the U.S. in the second half, allowing La Tri to capitalize and possibly even tally a goal on the scoreboard during the contest. However, a clean sheet for the USWNT is likely the intelligent bet considering their track record mentioned above.
USWNT vs. Mexico Best Bets
Not only should you forget a straight win for the USWNT (-10000), you would need to bet $100 just to net a profit of $15 in a Win Plus Over 2.5 goal wager for the United States.
If you want to make some money on this match, you will need to dig deeper without single-game parlays allowed on PointsBet.
➕ USA Women 4-1 Exact Score (+1200) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 unit
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A 4-1 Exact Score is my prediction for the game, so at +1200 odds, this is certainly a bet worth placing.
I expect the United States to win convincingly, but considering how close Haiti was to converting a goal against the USWNT, it would not surprise me to see La Tri put one on the board against a United States team with nothing at stake.
➕ USA Women 3-0 Exact Score (+575) at PointsBet Sportsbook
➕ USA Women 4-0 Exact Score (+500) at PointsBet Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 unit each
If parlays were available, a bet on USA Women Win To Nil (-265) would be a perfect pairing in this matchup. As mentioned above, the USWNT has not allowed a goal in a CONCACAF competitive match over the last decade.
However, without a tag team partner, this wager falls flat in value, and it would be wiser to place the exact score bets listed above instead.
These two Exact Score wagers are paired together because of their payout value. As a result, you can place both bets and clear a solid profit given the odds.
If you are feeling aggressive, it would not be the worst idea to pair these exact score bets with my 4-1 Exact Score prediction at +1200.
- A $30 bet, placing $10 each on an Exact Score of 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 could payout between $60 and $130.
- A $300 bet, placing $100 each on an Exact Score of 3-0, 4-0, and 4-1 could payout between $600 and $1300.
This strategy may seem unorthodox, but given the betting environment for this matchup, it may be the best route to take for a return on investment.