A bizarre scenario hangs over the World Cup. In the final group match between Algeria and Austria, both sides may actually prefer not to win. For Austria, a narrow defeat currently looks more appealing than a draw or a victory.
After two matchdays, Argentina have secured top spot in Group J with six points and, thanks to their head-to-head record, cannot be caught by Austria and Algeria, both on three. Jordan, with two defeats, are already eliminated.
As a result, Austria and Algeria will battle it out to decide second and third place; fourth spot is impossible for either side. Both teams beat Jordan, so in the event of a tie on points they will always finish above the Asian side thanks to their head-to-head record.
This peculiarity creates a paradox: the runner-up in Group J will probably face World Cup favourites Spain in the knockout stage, whereas the third-placed team will meet another group winner who, on paper, is weaker.
For Algeria, the maths is simple: a win secures second place and a probable clash with Spain; a draw or defeat, however, could yield the more attractive third-place spot.
For Austria, the maths is even starker: currently second on goal difference, they must lose to slip below Algeria and into third.
As a result, both nations may be chasing the same objective: finishing third. Normally two teams would compete fiercely for the highest possible ranking, but the opposite could happen in Kansas City. The incentive to win is limited, whereas a less favourable result could actually provide a better starting position for the knockout stages.
Because the final Group J matches will kick off only after every other group has finished, both sides will know the stakes in advance.
Florian Ederer, a professor of economics at Boston University and die-hard Austria fan, has already highlighted the peculiar dynamics this could create. Speaking to The Times, Ederer said: "You could end up with a situation where it is better for both teams not to win that final match." On X, he immediately draws a historical comparison: "Mark my words: this will be the Shame of Kansas City!"
He is referring to the infamous "Disgrace of Gijón" at the 1982 World Cup, when West Germany and Austria both knew that a narrow West German win would send both teams through. West Germany took an early 1–0 lead through Horst Hrubesch, then both sides spent the remainder of the match engaged in a brazen, open midfield exchange that saw neither team press for a goal.
Algeria later lodged a protest with FIFA, but the incident led the governing body to mandate that final group matches be played simultaneously in future tournaments.