Seven cases at the 2026 men's World Cup may be linked to result manipulation through suspicious betting irregularities, according to an international monitoring report that directly contradicts what FIFA had announced.
The Copenhagen Group, an independent international network that monitors and combats manipulation in sporting competitions, issued the seven alerts after monitoring 104 matches at the tournament.
Nobody has published the full report yet. The Council of Europe has released a summary of its findings, and according to "The Athletic", the most notable cases that raised suspicions during the tournament are:
1 - The red card received by South Africa's Themba Zwane in the 84th minute of his country's opening match against Mexico.
2 - Bets worth 4.8 million dollars (3.6 million pounds) collected by the American cryptocurrency-based prediction platform "Polymarket" on Spain failing to beat Cape Verde, a match that ended in a goalless draw in the group stage.
3 - A three-and-a-half-minute delay by the video assistant referee (VAR) technology before disallowing a goal scored by Spain's Ferran Torres in the 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia.
Striking details also emerged around the case of American forward Folarin Balogun. On 2 July, the same day the player was sent off against Bosnia and Herzegovina in the round of 32, the "Polymarket" platform opened a betting market on the question: "Will Balogun play against Belgium?".
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FIFA's disciplinary committee did not confirm the possibility of his participation, after suspending his ban, until 5 July. No similar markets opened for any of the other 14 players who received red cards in the tournament, the Copenhagen report noted, none of whom had their bans lifted.
Operating under the Council of Europe's Macolin Convention on the manipulation of match results, the group said it had sent FIFA a formal request for written clarification on the Balogun case. The Athletic contacted FIFA and Polymarket for comment without receiving a response so far.
Conflicting findings
The Copenhagen Group's findings landed as a shock. They came just one day after FIFA's integrity task force announced on Tuesday that "no suspicious betting activity or indicators of manipulation were detected in any match" throughout the tournament, and both the group and the Council of Europe sit as independent members of that same task force, formed in 2019.
By contrast, the Copenhagen Group announced on Wednesday that it had detected seven "yellow alerts". By its own definition, a yellow alert triggers when there are "multiple indicators of irregularities", which may include unexplained fluctuations in winning odds or rumours on social media.
Four levels make up the group's system: green "normal", yellow "low alert", orange "high alert", and red "highest risk level".
These alerts do not necessarily mean manipulation exists, said Christian Kalb, a betting industry expert who has previously collaborated with the Copenhagen Group, in comments to The Athletic.
Kalb explained: "These alerts can be explained by unusual behaviours such as changes in odds or hedging of liquidity. The volume of betting at the World Cup is enormous, and every match represents billions of pounds, which makes drawing definitive conclusions difficult".
He added: "The main problem lies in conflicts of interest and insider information. Traditional bookmakers may use prediction markets like Polymarket to hedge against risk when everyone is betting on the favourite, so they use the outcome of it not winning as a kind of insurance to reduce losses".
According to the report, the group placed 15 matches under close monitoring, particularly in the final round of the group stage, and analysed 12 controversial cases.
Total betting on the tournament reached an estimated 240 billion dollars, the group said, roughly double the volume at the Qatar 2022 World Cup.