Everton vs Liverpool Predictions: EPL Matchweek 6 Odds & Best Bets

Liverpool narrowly escaped with a 2-1 home win over Newcastle in Matchweek 5, as Fábio Carvalho scored the game-winning goal in the 98th minute. This was after Roberto Firmino scored the equalizer in the 61st. Needless to say, it was a close call for the Reds.

Everton sits towards the bottom of the table, going winless in their first five games with three draws and two losses. The good news is that their three points have come in their last three matches, where they faced Leeds United, Brentford, and Nottingham Forest.

Liverpool have signed midfielder Arthur Melo from Juventus and this should provide some much-needed depth as they deal with injuries to Thiago Alcântara, Naby Keïta, and now Jordan Henderson.

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Everton have been accused of wasting time to preserve a lead or draw, with Leeds United Manager Jesse Marsch commenting on the situation after their recent game. While Frank Lampard denied these claims, it’s likely that they’ll utilize this approach against Liverpool.

Can Liverpool extend their winning streak to three games? Or will Everton park the bus to secure a point at home in The Merseyside Derby?

Let’s take a look at the current betting odds to find some best bets and predictions for this Sept. 3 match.

Frank Ammirante’s 2022-2023 EPL Betting Record: 7-5 (+1.55 units)

Everton vs Liverpool Odds

• 3-Way Handicap: Everton (+675) | Draw (+380) | Liverpool (-256)
• Draw No Bet: Everton (+475) | Liverpool (-833)
• Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-175) | Under 2.5 (+125)

Everton vs Liverpool odds are current as of Thursday, Sept. 1 from BetMGM Sportsbook.

Despite playing on the road, Liverpool remain major favorites here, as Everton has struggled so far this season. The 2.5-goal total is heavily juiced toward the Over, which makes sense considering Everton has scored in four straight games, while Liverpool has firepower.

The Reds are too pricey at (-256) odds and so is the Over, focusing us to get a little more creative to find the best bets here.

Everton vs Liverpool Betting Tips

Expect Everton to ‘Park The Bus’

We’ve already seen signs of The Blues’ willingness to sit back to preserve leads or draws. Securing a point at home against a top club like Liverpool would be a positive result for Everton.

They’re content with allowing their opponent to hold the ball, evidenced by their 30 percent possession in the draw against Leeds. Expect more of the same here.

Can Roberto Firmino Keep Rolling?

Firmino has really stepped up his game in the last two fixtures, notching three goals and three assists. This has come at an important time with the injuries in Liverpool’s midfield.

With Liverpool likely enjoying heavy possession in this match, there will be more opportunities for Firmino to score.

Liverpool Will Bring The Heat

Liverpool have the offensive firepower to maintain pressure on the Everton backline throughout this match. The Reds have attempted 13.4 shots per game (1st) with 6.2 on target (third) and 3.0 goals (second).

While this is undoubtedly inflated by their 9-0 thrashing of Bournemouth, this is still one of the best offensive teams in the Premier League.

Everton vs Liverpool Prediction

Everton 0-2 Liverpool

I’m expecting Everton to keep it close with a defensive approach, only for Liverpool to eventually break through and score two goals in the second half.

Look for the Reds to extend their winning streak here by squeaking one out in this match.

Everton vs Liverpool Best Bets

➕ Match Total: Under 2.5 Total Goals (+125) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 Unit

I like the value on the Under here at (+125) odds, especially when you consider that Everton is at home and their best plan of attack is to utilize a defensive gameplan.

I think that Liverpool will need to push this Over by themselves.

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➕ Both Teams to Score: No (-115) at BetMGM

WAGER: 1 Unit

Everton was only able to maintain 30 percent possession against Leeds. Since I’m projecting them to sit back against Liverpool, I’m expecting more of the same in this match. It’s going to be difficult for them to score when they barely have possession.

This wager is the ideal hedge to my Under, protecting myself in the scenario where Liverpool scores three or more goals.

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➕ 1st Half Total: Under 0.5 Goals (+225) at BetMGM

WAGER: 0.5 Unit

This wager falls in line with the other two outlined above. I’m projecting Everton to frustrate Liverpool in the early stages of the match, maintaining a 0-0 deadlock at halftime, only for The Reds to break through in the second half.

Each of these bets has a strong correlation mixed with a balance of risk. Adding the first-half Under makes sense as a value play.

• Lock in this Liverpool-Everton game prop at BetMGM.