Everton vs. Chelsea Predictions: EPL Week 1 Match Odds & Best Bets

Everton and Chelsea will kick off their respective Premier League seasons on Saturday, Aug. 6, at Goodison Park in Liverpool, England.

Each club will enter the new campaign with vastly different aspirations. Chelsea will aim compete for a place at the top of the EPL table, while Everton are likely to be once again involved in the battle to avoid relegation.

Last season, the Blues finished third in the Premier League with a 21-11-6 record (74 points), while Everton posted a 16th-place finish with an 11-6-21 record.

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Both sides had a less than stellar preseason campaign, with Everton losing to MLS side Minnesota 4-0, while Chelsea fell to their London rival Arsenal 4-0 in the Florida Cup.

Will Chelsea start the season on the right foot with a strong performance on the road? Or will Everton mount an opening weekend upset on their quest to stay in the Premier League?

Let’s look at current betting lines to find the best bets and predict the match outcome.

Everton vs. Chelsea Odds

3-way Handicap: Chelsea (-160) | Everton (+400) | Draw (+275)

Draw No Bet: Chelsea (-375) / Everton (+260)

Over/Under Goals: Over 2.5 (-115)/ Under 2.5 (-120)

Everton vs. Chelsea odds are current as of 12 p.m. EST on July 26 at BetMGM.

Chelsea goes into the match as a massive favorite, which should not be a surprise given their recent track records.

On the other hand, Everton has earned a result in five of their previous seven meetings while winning 55% of their matches at home last season.

A steady line at 2.5 total goals seems reasonable given the makeup of the teams on the pitch. During their most recent meeting, Everton walked away with a 1-0 victory, while the clubs reached a 1-1 tie during their showdown last December.

Everton vs. Chelsea Betting Tips

Is Chelsea ready for the opening fixture?

Chelsea has struggled to adapt from their problems last season, which involved a financial scandal that led to a change in team ownership and disappointing play on the pitch after a promising start to the season.

Manager Thomas Tuchel has been outspoken in his displeasure with the current state of the Chelsea roster regarding physical fitness and mental commitment following a disappointing preseason.

Tuchel blamed the poor performance on a series of players searching for an exit during the transfer window and not having the right personnel for the start of the season. The German manager said, “I cannot guarantee we will be ready (for the start of the season) in two weeks.”

This may be a motivational tactic by Tuchel. However, given Chelsea's difficult offseason that has seen many top transfer targets such as Jules Kounde and Raphinha choose to join other clubs, this is likely frustration finally bubbling to the surface.

Will this realization be a reality check for the Chelsea roster? Or will Everton seize the opportunity to take advantage of a club in disarray and steal a win at home?

Chelsea’s Major Advantage in Goal Differential

The story of this match-up, and current betting lines, can mostly be summed up by goal differential.

Chelsea finished with the third-best goal differential in the Premier League last season with a +43, trailing only Manchester City (+73) and Liverpool (+68). On the other hand, Everton finished with a -23 goal differential.

The Blues conceded just 33 goals last season (third best in EPL) while scoring 76 times (third best in EPL). Everton allowed the fifth most goals (66) while scoring the eighth fewest (43).

The statistics paint a cut-and-dried picture of the expectations leading into this game, even without factoring in significant offseason roster changes.

Even while Chelsea tallied the third highest goal total in the Premier League, only Mason Mount had a season with 10-plus goals under his belt.

However, with Raheem Sterling joining the London club from Manchester City the Blues’ attacking options have greatly increased. The 27-year-old forward scored at least 10 goals in the previous five Premier League seasons.

Unfortunately for Everton, their stagnant offense has been further deflated after the loss of Richarlison (Tottenham), who was responsible for nearly one-quarter of the team's goals last season.

Edouard Mendy should have an excellent opportunity to convert a clean sheet with the help of a stellar Chelsea back line against this Everton side. Meanwhile, Jordan Pickford and his 27th-percentile save percentage may be in trouble, even against an offense in disarray.

How will Everton account for Richarlison's departure?

Everton’s motivation for Richarlison’s exit may have been financial, but they will have an uphill battle in replacing the striker's production.

The 25-year-old not only led the team in goals, but also in assists, shots, shots on target, and goal-creating actions. This is not to mention Richalison’s outstanding defensive metrics.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin is expected to be the focal point of the Toffees' offense this season, along with Demarai Gray. However, after the duo missed a recent preseason game against Blackpool, Frank Lampard found surprising production from Salomon Rondon, Anthony Gordon, and Dele Alli.

If there were going to be an opportunity for Everton to expose the Chelsea defense, it would need to be in the midfield, where they are currently vulnerable.

Overall, Calvert-Lewin will need to be healthy and productive if Everton is going to have a successful match against Chelsea, but it is unlikely to be enough.

Everton vs. Chelsea Prediction

Chelsea 2-0 Everton

Despite the different narratives heading into the match, Chelsea is the superior team on paper.

Kalidou Koulibaly, Thiago Silva, and Mendy should make things very difficult for Everton's depleted attack. At the same time, Mason Mount, Raheem Sterling, and the Blues should be able to take advantage of the Toffees’ lackluster defense.

Everton vs. Chelsea Best Bets

➕ Clean Sheet: Chelsea only (+175) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

You can bet on Chelsea to have a clean sheet at +125, but unless you think there is going to be a scoreless draw, be sure to jump on the “Chelsea only” option for a slight boost to +175.

The Blues had a difficult offseason, but have yet to deploy their starting defense to the pitch at the same time. A core of Koulibaly, Silva, and James will be a difficult task for the Everton offense.

Meanwhile, Edouard Mendy carries a 44.2% clean sheet rate, which ranks in the 95th percentile among the “Big 5” leagues in Europe, making this wager well worth the investment.

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➕ Multiple Correct Score 0:1, 0:2 or 0:3 (+210) at BetMGM Sportsbook

WAGER: 1 unit

If you are confident in a Chelsea shutout, a Multiple Score wager is a fantastic value at +210, where you can get coverage for three separate outcomes.

Each of the recommended bets pair nicely with the Under 2.5 goals for -115, if you’re looking for an alternative.

Bet on this Chelsea prop at BetMGM.