Fulham's stay in the Premier League looks set to be a brief one. Three managers and significant investment in the transfer market have yielded little success for last season's play-off winners who are edging closer to the Championship with every passing game.
The visitors are 4/1 (5.0) underdogs and 3/1 (4.0) to take a point from their trip to Vicarage Road. However, given that Fulham's away games this term have seen them lose 14 times in 16 attempts this term, those odds are tough to consider.
Instead, the value looks to be in backing the home side to heap more misery upon the Cottagers and do so in some style.
Watford's home record is solid this season and should be a source of encouragement for their backers. The Hornets have picked up 23 points but have only played 14 times in front of their own fans thus far. Together with Tottenham, that's a league low going into the midweek round of Premier League matches.
A win in this game could elevate Javi Gracia's side as high as seventh spot depending on results elsewhere and they look well worth supporting to secure three valuable points. At 4/6 (1.67) the home side are likely to be a touch short for most punters in terms of a single wager though.
Instead, anyone looking to get with the Hornets should take the 17/10 (2.70) on Watford with a -1 goal handicap. This bet needs the hosts to win by two clear goals to pay out as a winner.
Fulham's struggles are rooted in a defence that has conceded a league-high 72 goals this term. As such, five of their last six Premier League away days have ended in a defeat by at least two goals. That spell includes defeats to Crystal Palace, West Ham and Southampton.
Given Gracia's side shouldn't lack motivation, Fulham look set for another tough evening and at 17/10 (2.70) backing Watford to win with a one goal handicap looks the best selection.