Arsenal entered the final three games of the 2021-22 Premier League season with a four-point cushion above rival Tottenham in the race for the final Champions League spot.
That cushion quickly dissipated as the Gunners were swept away in a pivotal North London Derby and then lost at Newcastle the following week. Ultimately, a lack of squad depth was the team’s demise, as they just didn’t have enough to get over the line.
Adding squad depth has been a priority during the summer transfer window, which was necessary given the return to the Europa League and the compact calendar created by a winter World Cup.
Although Eddie Nketiah had a strong run-in, the signing of Gabriel Jesus from Manchester City gives the Gunners a different look and drastically improves the front line following the departures of Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette.
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Mikel Arteta and the board have raided the manager’s former club once again, this time for Oleksandr Zinchenko. The Ukraine captain provides cover at left back for the injury-prone Kieran Tierney and can also slot into midfield — as he does for his country — when required.
The additions of Fábio Vieira (Porto) and USMNT goalkeeper Matt Turner (New England Revolution) are ones for the future, but Arsenal has substantially improved the squad heading into this season. They should continue to ascend the table as the young core, anchored by Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, and Ben White, continue to gain experience.
Let’s look at current betting lines to identify the best bets and value for Arsenal and predict their upcoming EPL season.
Arsenal Betting Lines
Win Premier League (+4000)
Finish Top 4 in Premier League (+150)
Finish Top 6 in Premier League (-225)
Premier League League Winner without Manchester City (+1800)
Gabriel Jesus: Top Goalscorer in EPL (+1600)
(Odds are updated as of July 21 on BetMGM Sportsbook.)
Arsenal has the sixth-best odds to win the Premier League at (+4000) odds, behind Manchester City (-160), Liverpool (+275), Tottenham (+1200), Chelsea (+1400), and Manchester United (+2500).
After finishing fifth in the EPL last campaign, the Gunners are expected to retain their place in the top six this season. However, they remain outside favorites for a top-four finish and a return to the Champions League.
Gabriel Jesus is Arsenal’s best bet to win the EPL Golden Boot, which was shared by Son Heung-min and Mohamed Salah last season (23 goals apiece). Jesus netted 58 Premier League goals in six seasons for Manchester City, but he will likely have a more prominent role spearheading Arsenal’s attack than he did at any point for the Sky Blues.
Let's take a closer look at Arsenal’s 2022-23 season outlook and assess their chances of competing for the Premier League title.
Arsenal EPL Outlook 2022-2023
This will be a significant season for Mikel Arteta and his side as the Gunners laid a strong foundation last campaign with the youngest squad in the league.
They improved their points return by six over the previous campaign, but the club’s defensive record regressed (48 goals conceded). Defensive stability, which was the club's hallmark in the early 2000s, has been an issue for Arsenal in recent years and there is still work to be done to clean some things up.
The hope is that the return of center back William Saliba, who was named Ligue 1 Young Player of the Year last season while on loan at Marseille, will help move that process forward and provide competition for Ben White and Gabriel. In addition, Aaron Ramsdale had a remarkable debut season for the Gunners in net and will provide some stability at the back.
On the other end of the pitch, the key will be getting Gabriel Jesus off to a strong start. He has already found the net a few times in the preseason, which is a good sign of things to come.
Still, Bukayo Saka was Arsenal’s leading scorer last season with 11 goals. While Saka is a remarkable talent, and that return is solid for a winger, Arsenal needs Jesus and Nketiah to get goals in bunches to compete for a top-four spot.
While Tottenham and Chelsea are favored for those positions behind Manchester City and Liverpool, I can see a scenario where this young Arsenal squad takes the next step and qualifies for the Champions League.
Arsenal Best Futures & Prop Bets
Arsenal: Win Premier League (+4000)
I do not expect Arsenal to win the Premier League this season, but these odds have some value, especially considering that Manchester United (+2500) shares the same odds to finish in the top four and top six.
That makes minimal sense to me since United is just beginning its rebuild under Erik ten Hag and arguably has a less talented roster heading into the new season.
We could see outlier results in the Premier League this year, as the World Cup layoff and rule change to allow five substitutions per match will provide unique challenges for clubs. If things get chaotic and this young core takes another significant step forward, Arsenal’s title challenge could arrive ahead of schedule.
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Arsenal: Top 4 Finish in Premier League (+150)
This is more attainable than winning the league, and you are still getting good value at plus-money odds.
There is a lot of love for Tottenham in the market, which makes sense given some of their incoming transfers, but Chelsea is still in a bit of a transitional phase after struggling down the stretch of last season.
Arsenal is a far better bet to qualify for the Champions League than Man United at the same odds, as they were only one result away from doing so last season. Sure, some of the competition has improved, but so have the Gunners.
Place this Arsenal wager on BetMGM now.
Gabriel Jesus: Top Goalscorer in EPL (+1600)
Jesus has never cracked 15 goals in a Premier League season. However, he was never given the opportunities he is about to have as Arsenal’s number nine. He should be the team’s leading goalscorer, and I would expect him to set new career highs in both minutes and goals.
The same can’t be guaranteed for some of the other elite forwards ranked ahead of him in the odds, as teams like Tottenham have plenty of goalscorers to share the wealth. If you are looking for a longer shot beyond the likes of Erling Haaland (+250) and Mohamed Salah (+450), Jesus is a solid value play.
Make this Gabriel Jesus prop bet on BetMGM now.