Man City and Newcastle to make it but Chelsea miss out: GOAL predicts the Premier League's top-five race as epic fight for Champions League places resumes

Current position: 8th (45 pts). Predicted finish: 10th (56 pts)

For people hoping any of the current bottom-half teams break into the top 10 before the end of the season, we've got some bad news to break to you - our data says it's just not going to happen, but we'll circle back to a couple of those infamous stories later.

Ordinarily, 56 points is a total that should get you a little closer to the European places, though in this simulation, it would only land Fulham 10th spot. If this is the case, it may take the shine off what has been an incredible job by Marco Silva at Craven Cottage, who has repaired his own reputation and consolidated the Whites' status as a top-flight club again.

Unfortunately for them, some tricky fixtures are peering over the horizon. They will take on Arsenal and Liverpool immediately upon returning to Premier League action, with a west London derby with Chelsea also coming up. Manchester City head to SW6 on the last day of the season, while only three of their remaining games come against bottom-half sides, and one of them is a trip to bitter neighbours Brentford. Sorry, Fulham fans, but the maths isn't maths-ing this year.

Current position:10th (44 pts). Predicted finish: 9th (57 pts)

Bournemouth booking a first-ever European adventure would cap off a remarkable season before their squad inevitably gets pillaged by richer and more glamorous teams. Alas, it appears the Cherries' passports will be staying in the drawer.

This may just be a case of recency bias skewing predictions - Bournemouth have won only one of their last six league games - or it could be a legitimate concern over Andoni Iraola's full-throttle style. You could make a case either way.

Clashes with Ipswich Town and West Ham ought to turn into two wins fresh from the international break and FA Cup sixth-round weekend, though this creeping inconsistency could make those tougher affairs than usual too. A run of four successive matches against Manchester United, Arsenal, Aston Villa and Manchester City heading into the final day of the season may also throw a spanner in the works.

Nevertheless, this would still mark tremendous progress for a team who looked destined to be relegated at the start of last season. How they react and rebuild this summer when the likes of Dean Huijsen, Milos Kerkez and even manager Iraola receive significant offers will determine how close they can go again in future.

Current position: 9th (45 pts). Predicted finish: 8th (58 pts)

Dealing with the added intensity of a full Champions League schedule has wrecked havoc with Aston Villa's Premier League campaign. They have had to deal with various injuries, the sale of star striker Jhon Duran and the need to quickly reinvent themselves with Marcus Rashford and Marco Asensio to keep up with the pack.

Unai Emery's side are the only top-half team currently boasting a negative goal difference, which tends to be a fair differential when splitting hairs. Villa are still going strong in the Champions League and have an exciting quarter-final with Paris Saint-Germain to look forward to, while Crystal Palace await them in the FA Cup semi-finals, so it's only natural their domestic form may suffer a little more.

As is the case with Fulham, Villa will take on six top-half teams before the season is out, and if they're looking leggy from their European and cup campaigns, then expect results to follow a similar trend. Eighth could be enough to secure a spot in the Conference League, however, allowing Villa to right the wrongs of 2023-24 and go all the way in the third-tier competition. But after tasting the highs of the Champions League, it'd be a bitter pill to swallow.

Current position: 7th (47 pts). Predicted finish: 7th (60 pts)

After a harrowing 7-0 defeat at the hands of Nottingham Forest on February 1, Brighton's divisive 32-year-old head coach Fabian Hurzeler is said to have literally set his tactical plans on fire in front of his players. Which, you know, in an age where managers usually stick rigidly to a philosophy for better or worse, is quite an admirable feat.

Since that thrashing, Brighton have taken 13 points from a possible 15 to propel themselves back into European contention, and six of their remaining fixtures come against bottom-half teams. The Seagulls' lips will be smacking at the thought of another continental excursion after last year's run to the last-16 of the Europa League, and a seventh-place finish should get them back into that same competition.

Current position: 4th (49 pts). Predicted finish: 6th (63 pts)

The first half of the season seemed to have created a false image of how good this Chelsea team is. Cole Palmer's scoring exploits played a large part in their jump to second in the table, though he is now without a goal since their January 14 draw with Bournemouth, and the Blues have won four of 13 Premier League matches since beating Brentford on December 15.

Chelsea's schedule is kinder than a lot of their rivals, yet teams from all across the division appear to have figured them out and there are stark similarities between Enzo Maresca's 2023-24 and 2024-25 campaigns, even if he's showing little sign of changing or adapting (maybe he too should consider setting his tactical plans alight in front of the Blues' 100-man strong playing squad!).

If Palmer gets his scoring boots back on and Maresca finds a way to adequately manage his squad in the Conference League, maybe they'll get their act together and reach the Champions League again. After all, qualification is currently in their hands. It's a risky bet at even at this stage, however.

Current position: 6th (47 pts). Predicted finish: 5th (66 pts)

The hard part about doing predictions like these is factoring in intangibles and where clearly better teams will slip up against obviously worse ones. In the case of Newcastle, the issue is factoring in the Carabao Cup winners' curse.

The victors tend to subconsciously take their foot off the gas for the final stretch of the season having already tasted silverware. At this moment in time though, it difficult to imagine how the imperious side who rolled over Liverpool at Wembley will falter before the end of the campaign.

Who's going to get the better of big Dan Burn? Who will pin down Alexander Isak? Who will out-sh*thouse Joelinton and Bruno Guimaraes? Surely nobody, that's who. Eddie Howe's men come back into action with four successive games against sides in the bottom half, playing six of nine in total against those not in the top 10, making a 19-point return from their final fixtures to snatch the extra Champions League place totally conceivable.

Current position: 3rd (54 pts). Predicted finish:4th (66 pts)

Nottingham Forest haven't let a mid-winter wobble derail their barnstorming season so far. Creating a six-point buffer in third place, which leaves them closer to Arsenal one spot above by four points than Chelsea beneath them, even allows them further wiggle room for another drop-off in form down the home straight should they have one eye on FA Cup success.

Nuno Espirito Santo has built a solid side which may actually be superior to his streets-won't-forget team across the Midlands at Wolves. Most of their tough fixtures are in the rear-view mirror too, with their run of seven games versus the Premier League's bottom half the kindest run-in of their rivals.

The two-time kings of Europe are edging closer to Champions League qualification. The likes of Real Madrid and Barcelona are about to running scared from Chris Wood. Drink it in.

Current position: 5th (48 pts). Predicted finish: 3rd (67 pts)

A return of 67 points would represent Manchester City's worst Premier League return since they tallied 66 in 2015-16, the last before Pep Guardiola's arrival at the club. Their leaky defensive record of 40 goals against thus far means they are likely to record their worst total in that regard in the entire Abu Dhabi United Group era, with 50 from their inaugural 2008-09 campaign still the score to beat.

Yet finishing in third place,and potentially lifting the FA Cup, could still make this a a decent campaign all things considered. Winning a fifth Premier League title in a row when no other team in English history has recorded anything more than a three-peat always felt unlikely, and there's no shame in falling to Real Madrid in the Champions League. Many of the ageing stars at the Etihad Stadium need replacing, and they got a head-start on that with a busy January transfer window.

A home game with Leicester City to kick off the run-in should immediately be flagged by Guardiola not just as an opportunity to build momentum, but boost their goal difference. A crosstown trip to rivals Manchester United, traditionally a happy hunting ground regardless of affairs at Old Trafford, ought to bear similar fruit. Clashes with Crystal Palace and Everton rounds off a four-game stand against sides in the lower reaches of the table. Three of their final five matches also come at home, including the chance to pile more misery on Southampton.

Congratulations to Manchester United and Tottenham for being so unashamedly awful this season that they have shattered the concept of the Premier League's 'Big Six' era once and for all. No longer can daft teams get away with making so many daft decisions just because they're rich.

Both are pinning their season hopes on Europa League glory and could still meet in the final in Bilbao, as unlikely as that may seem. That would be reason enough for writing them off from this European race, but thankfully they're also simply not good enough to make up the gap to the top half, making the full predicted table seem more likely than you would ordinarily think.