WC Dark Horses GFXGOAL
Tom Hindle

The 2026 World Cup dark horses, ranked: Can Colombia go all the way or are the USMNT the best of the rest?

From Colombia to the USMNT, GOAL ranks the teams most likely to make a dark horse run at the 2026 World Cup - and possibly even go all the way

Every World Cup has a dark horse. It’s the story that defines each tournament, especially at a time when surprise winners are rare. Look at the last four tournaments, and each of the champions - Argentina, France, Germany, Spain - could have easily been predicted before a ball was kicked. But who could have called Ghana's run to quarterfinal in 2010? Or Morocco's in 2022? Those runs are what make the World Cup fun.

Yet some qualities are always needed and there are common ingredients from tournament to tournament. The first is a solid structure - the ability to keep the ball out. The second tends to be a game-changer in attack, whether it be a singular presence or a well-constructed machine to make things happen. And finally, there's the vibes, the belief, the groundswell of momentum that gathers during a World Cup run. 

It's what makes these things so difficult to predict. Yet there are some clear contenders at the 2026 World Cup. And with the draw done, GOAL ranks the six teams most likely to make a run next summer... 

  • Arda Guler of Turkiye applauds the team fansGetty Images

    6Turkey

    OK, so Turkey technically have not qualified yet. They had a rough run over the last couple of months, but should comfortably get through a playoff that includes either Romania, Slovakia, and Kosovo. There's plenty of talent here, too, with Kenan Yildiz, Arda Guler, and Hakan Calhanoglu all capable of making the difference on their day. A hammering of the United States last summer showed how clinical they can be, too - even if there are question marks at striker. 

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    5USMNT

    What do we make of the hosts? Technically, the USMNT aren’t the only hosts, but so far, this has felt like a very U.S.-centric tournament. All of their group games are on home soil, and the ingredients are there. They have an elite manager, a clear structure, and quality across the pitch. The Christian Pulisic “world-class” debate will never end, but he remains a game-changer at almost any level. Add the usual boost of being at home, and you can’t write them off.

  • Son Heung-Min South KoreaGetty Images

    4South Korea

    This is hardly a flaming hot take. South Korea make noise at World Cups. It's kind of their thing. It goes back to 2002, when they were unlikely semifinalists on home soil. In between have been dramatic wins over Germany and shocking defeats of Portugal. Their team is full of quality pretty much everywhere, with Lee Kang-In, Kim Min-Jae, and, of course, Son Heung-Min leading the way. They are well coached, well drilled, and dangerous on the break. Those are all good things. 

  • takefusa kubo japan(C)Getty images

    3Japan

    At No. 18 in the world, Japan are the highest-ranked Asian side in FIFA's World Rankings. But they aren't a bad football team whatsoever, either. There isn't really a weak link. Manager Hajime Moriyasu has been in charge for eight years now, and during that time has pieced together a well-drilled side that can be dangerous in attack. Take Kubo, Karou Mitoma, and Takumi Minamino are all threats in the final third. Daichi Kamada is an excellent central midfielder. Wataru Endo offers solidity. And there are plenty of options at the back, too. They could do with a little depth in the full back positions, but otherwise they're a fair bet to make a run. 

  • Erling HaalandGetty Images

    2Norway

    Erling Haaland. That's all that needs to be said. 

  • Luis Diaz Colombia 2025Getty Images

    1Colombia

    There are dark horses, and then there are fringe favorites. Colombia sit somewhere in that gap. There is a perfectly reasonable world in which they win the whole thing next summer. The pieces are all there: they are well coached, strong in midfield, reliable at the back, and have a clear difference-maker in Luis Díaz - who is comfortably enjoying the best season of his career. And then there’s Jhon Durán, who will either stink it up or hit one from 30 yards, which, in its own way, makes him the perfect wildcard.

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