What San Jose Earthquakes fans should make of owner John Fisher's 'shameless' Oakland A's baseball relocation decision

San Jose hosted the first-ever MLS match in 1996 and won league titles in 2001 and 2003 with United States men's national team legend Landon Donovan to the fore.

So, when Fisher joined Lewis Wolff in spearheading a restart of the club in 2006 after its first iteration bolted for Houston, he took hold of an organization with strong, successful soccer roots. High expectations came with that.

The Bay Area has always been well-positioned to be a massive market for the sport, both in terms of population size and diverse demographics, which should have worked in Fisher's favor. The greater metropolitan area is roughly double the size of smash success MLS expansion locations such as Cincinnati and St. Louis.

But even as Fisher got the new soccer-specific stadium he wanted built in San Jose, attendance and on-field results have been mediocre.

A frustrated Wolff (who has since sold his stake in the club) said in 2009: "In Santa Clara County, if you’re not able to tap into that market then there is something wrong with us.”

PayPal Park has one of the smallest capacities for an MLS field at 18,000, and yet it rarely sells out matches. The Earthquakes rank second-to-last in attendance this season at 14,163 fans per game. It hasn't helped that San Jose has not finished a regular season with a points total better than 10th in MLS since 2012.

Despite those frustrations, and Fisher's decision to move his baseball team out of the region, the Earthquakes will not leave San Jose. No chance.

MLS values the Bay Area market as a crown jewel, a league executive told GOAL, and believes attendance issues are the product of disappointing on-field results.

"Performance matters with any sport on the planet," they acknowledged. "They've got a good start this year. And hopefully, you know, fans will continue to respond."

The executive pointed to annual matches against the LA Galaxy held in larger-capacity Stanford Stadium that sometimes bring in more than 50,000 people, as well as European club tours that quickly sell out. They said that the market is rich enough for San Jose to one day be able to crack the top 10 in attendance - though the club would need a bigger venue to make that happen, as 10th-place Austin FC currently seat 2,000 more fans per game than PayPal Park's capacity.

GOAL was also told by the league official that they have seen first-hand that Fisher and Co. are active, "very engaged" participants in MLS owners' meetings.

An Earthquakes front-office source, meanwhile, emphasized that relocation is not on the table. While they declined to directly comment on rumors Fisher could sell some or all of his shares of the club, they suggested the 2021 report by Sportico of a potential sale of minority stakes remained a fair assessment of the situation.

For now, the focus is on expanding the reach of the fan base under the current set-up.

"We have made a number of important investments on and off the field in the past few years and we will continue to invest in our community to grow the sport and our club," club president Jared Shawlee wrote in a statement to GOAL. "Our goal is to be the epicenter of soccer in Northern California.

The Earthquakes do internally acknowledge they may not have marketed themselves enough to the greater Bay Area, said the team source, previously keeping a hyper-local San Jose focus that may have contributed to a disconnect between the team and important potential fans in San Francisco, Oakland and parts of California further north.

There are plans being made to change that: public soccer fields and recreational facilities will be erected in numerous Bay Area cities such as Salinas and Hayward, and summertime youth programming will be expanded with an objective to "double the fan base," according to Shawlee.

Oakland's loss of teams from other sports (the Athletics, Raiders and Warriors) could create room for people in the Bay Area to pick up more of an interest in local professional soccer. The Earthquakes want to capitalize on that.

But Fisher's unpopular role in pushing baseball out of Oakland as the grassroots growth of the USL's Oakland Roots takes off is a potential hinderance, even though the Roots are a division below them.

In fact, the Roots wasted no time in pouncing on what some local fans view as a betrayal on the part of Fisher and the baseball team.

Right after the Athletics announced their relocation plan, the Roots boasted that they submitted an official proposal to the city to enter into a lease at the Malibu Lot adjacent to the baseball team's soon-to-be-vacated stadium. They would be able to double their attendance (a Roots source claimed they wanted a capacity of 10,000) while making use of land that might otherwise be abandoned.

The unsaid message: If Fisher neglects Oakland, we can fill the void.

Scrutiny on Fisher's leadership in MLS would probably be more intense if the Earthquakes hadn't started this season well enough to offer hope that the current front-office group knows what it's doing and can maintain a contender in the coming years.

Productive homegrown academy graduates such as Cade Cowell are cause for optimism that a youth system criticized in the past is finally hitting its stride.

"[Our] track record of success reinforces that the club’s investment in Quakes Academy is working, and we’re incredibly proud to see the growth of our players at every level," wrote Shawlee to GOAL.

With 14 points through nine matches, the Earthquakes rank fifth in the Western Conference; they finished dead last in 2022.

But a shock 1-0 defeat to Monterey Bay FC in the U.S. Open Cup on Tuesday night was the worst result of Luchi Gonzalez's promising first season as their head coach, and three of their next four games are against Los Angeles teams, making the coming month crucial in maintaining positive momentum.

While one of the strongest criticisms of Fisher's baseball management has been his refusal to invest in retaining star players or attracting new ones, the nature of MLS finances protects Earthquakes fans against their owner knee-capping the roster to the same degree.

Unlike MLS, MLB has no hard salary cap, paving the way for absurd payroll disparities. Fisher's baseball team is last in the league in payroll at about $36 million, compared to the estimated $211 million spent by the New York Mets in 2023.

Conversely, MLS forces teams to remain within strict salary brackets outside of three designated player spots, which makes payroll disparities less extreme.

The Earthquakes are still routinely near the bottom of the payroll chart, historically unwilling to shell out the kind of designated player contracts that clubs such as Toronto FC, LAFC and the LA Galaxy do, but they are far closer to the big spenders than the Athletics can claim in MLB.

The prospect of Lionel Messi joining Inter Miami this summer is worth watching for Earthquakes fans.

MLS could bend its rules to accommodate the likely historic cost of bringing the World Cup winner to the United States, a decision that may have the side effect of expanding the chasm between the high spenders and budgeters.

Shawlee told GOAL that the Earthquakes aim to increase transfer outlay in the coming years.

"We will continue to compete for players across the world that strengthen the club and fit Chris Leitch and Luchi’s vision for our roster," the club's president said in his statement. "We have a plan to continue to grow our roster spend every year going forward to bring in players who will help us toward our ultimate goal of winning an MLS Cup."

Last April, the Earthquakes announced a 12-month Exclusive Negotiating Agreement with Santa Clara County for a sparkling new soccer complex at the Santa Clara County Fairgrounds that would house training for the first team, as well as much-needed amenities for their youth squads.

A year then went by without a public follow-up.

GOAL has been told, however, that the Exclusive Negotiating Agreement was extended and is still active. Talks with government officials have drawn on due to the inherently complicated nature of land deals, a team source said, but there's still belief that a deal to build the facility will get done.

"There's no lack of commitment from ownership on it," they said.

Earthquakes fans don't need to worry that Fisher moving his baseball team has any connection to where the soccer team is located, according to everyone GOAL spoke with connected to the team and league. Plus, people who oppose the owner may get a long-held wish granted if he does sell minority stakes.

The status of the training facilities and team's ability to effectively develop youth players will be important factors in whether the club can satisfy fans through the 2020s.

The evolution of MLS designated player spending policies is also worth keeping an eye on.

Whether the Earthquakes can better engage fans in cities north of San Jose will affect attendance at PayPal Park.

Perhaps the 2026 World Cup, co-hosted by the United States, will be a gift to the front office in terms of adding new supporters to a market already filled with soccer fanatics - but there is plenty for Fisher and Co. to fight for before then.