William Saliba's injury killed Arsenal's season - now Gunners contract talks could be a lot tougher

The France international has proven himself to be one of the Premier League’s best centre-backs during his debut season in England, and Arsenal view him as integral to their plans over the coming years. But Saliba will have just 12 months left on his current deal this summer, and so far talks over fresh terms have yet to prove successful.

"We want to keep our best talent," Mikel Arteta said, when asked about Saliba’s contract situation earlier this month. "Especially the players that deserve some recognition. I think he has been incredible since he came back from his loan period and we want to reward him, that is for sure. We will find the right moment to do that.

"Obviously [technical director] Edu and the board are on top of every negotiation regarding new contracts and now we are doing everything we possibly can to do that in the right moment at the right time. The communication and the relationship is super. It is about timing, I think. Nothing else."

Arsenal are currently calm about Saliba’s situation and are hopeful that a new contract will be agreed once the current season has come to an end. But they are aware that clubs from across Europe will be keeping a close eye on what is happening with the centre-back, given he is about to enter the final year of his deal. And it’s almost certain that offers will start to arrive for the defender this summer, should an agreement not be reached in the coming weeks

Saliba has always maintained that he wants to stay at Arsenal. “I am so happy here,” he said in January, when asked about the progress of the negotiations. “The club is speaking with my agent and me, the only thing I can do is [focus on my football].”

Arteta will be hoping that a successful conclusion to the talks is just about timing - as he suggested earlier in the month - because what the last nine games have shown us is just how valuable Saliba is to this Arsenal team. 

And his representatives will certainly be pointing that out during the next round of talks that they will have with the club about an extension. If Saliba's camp were in a good position before, given his age and the relatively short time left on his current deal, then they are in an incredibly strong one now.

The numbers speak for themselves. With the Frenchman in the heart of the defence, Arsenal have a win percentage of 78 percent this season. Without him, that drops to 44%. On average, Arteta’s side conceded 0.9 goals per game with Saliba and 1.9 without him. When the 22-year-old starts, Arsenal have averaged 2.4 points per game. When he doesn’t, that drops to 1.7. They also allow far more shots on their goal (11.8 compared to 8.3).

And it’s not just at the back that Arsenal have seen a drop off in the absence of the central defender. They have less possession without Saliba (56% compared to 61%), their passing accuracy into the final third drops (73% from 77%) and average less shots per game (13.4 compared to 16.6).

Those numbers show how influential Saliba is in moving the team forward from the back. His quality on the ball and his ability to break the lines with his passing was a hugely important factor in Arsenal’s success this season. Without him, Arteta’s side were robbed of that, and performances and results dipped sharply.

Obviously, there were plenty of other contributing factors to Arsenal’s end-of-season collapse. It was not just down to the back injury Saliba picked up in the Europa League tie against Sporting CP on March 16.

And as Jamie Carragher pointed out during his analysis of Arsenal on Sky Sports' Monday Night Football, Arteta’s side had started to concede more goals while Saliba was still in the team following the World Cup.

“This idea that they weren't conceding goals, or looking vulnerable, with Saliba at centre-back is a myth,” Carragher said. “After the World Cup, they were looking completely different defensively. They were still getting the results, but they were conceding goals. Then, without Saliba, they drop even further.

"I don't think him being there for the full season would have meant that Arsenal would have gone on and won the title. I’m sure they would have been a lot closer, but there are still things he needs to improve on.”

Carragher is correct. Saliba is far from the finished article, but he was never going to be at just 21 and in his first season in the Premier League. But the data still clearly shows how influential he is when it comes to Arsenal's results and performances. That’s why they are so desperate to keep him and are hopeful that he will soon join the likes of Martinelli, Saka and Ramsdale in agreeing a new contract.

“He had an immediate impact,” Arteta said, when discussing Saliba’s role this season. “He took out every question mark that we could have with him and gave us all the reasons to play him. He’s been exceptional since that day.”

In Saliba, Arsenal have one of the brightest young talents in world football, and if the last two months have told us anything, it’s that they have to do all they can to make sure they keep hold of him.

It might not be cheap, but it will be worth it.