Lithuania host Montenegro on Sunday in a crucial Nations League clash which could have repercussions at both ends of League C Group 4.
Edgaras Jankauskas’ men are yet to claim a point from their three games and another loss here would essentially relegate them whilst keeping Montenegro in the promotion hunt.
Although it is tempting to back such a hefty price on a home win, the reality is that Lithuania have lost 14 of their last 17 matches and were downed 2-0 by Montenegro just over a month ago.
Therefore, it is the 19/20 (1.95) shot on the visitors to claim victory - and extend their run of unbeaten away games to four - that makes most sense.
Whilst Montenegro are not quite on the level of Serbia and Romania in their group, the Brave Falcons should have enough to win in Vilnius as they have lost just two of their last seven games.
Their comfortable win over this opposition in September will give Montenegro plenty of belief that they can do the double over them here, especially given the fact that they have kept a clean sheet in five of their last seven.
Lithuania, meanwhile, have not won a competitive match in nearly two years since beating Malta in a World Cup qualifier and they will have their work cut out to break down such a resolute defence here.
The 4/6 (1.67) quote for under 2.5 goals is also very appealing but is perhaps a little short for a single bet, so the 19/20 (1.95) on Montenegro to claim victory that looks the best value play for this Nations League clash.