Spain & the Netherlands set to meet in the Euro 2012 final, according to the Castrol EDGE Calculator

Official Uefa Euro 2012 sponsor Castrol EDGE have used their highly-accurate prediction tool to foresee a repeat of the World Cup 2010 final in Poland and Ukraine next summer

Two of Europe’s strongest football nations, Spain and the Netherlands, are favourites to go head-to-head in the Uefa Euro 2012 final next year, according to the Castrol EDGE Calculator, a highly-accurate prediction tool for fans following next summer’s tournament.

Launched on Saturday by Euro 2012 Official Sponsor Castrol EDGE, the Castrol EDGE Calculator predicts that the two teams who battled it out for the 2010 Fifa World Cup in South Africa have the strongest chance of progressing through the groups and will face each other at the final in Kiev on July 1. Spain have a 34.2 per cent chance of reaching the final, while the Dutch show 33.5%. Their closest contenders are Germany, with a 24.3% chance of making the final, and England, with a 17.7% chance.

First launched for World Cup 2010, where it accurately predicted nearly 70% of teams’ progression, Castrol EDGE have applied the same expertise they apply to the development of their strongest-ever oil to create the Castrol EDGE Calculator, using the latest technology and data analysis techniques to identify which nations have the strongest chance of success at Euro 2012.

Created by the same team of Castrol EDGE Performance Analysts behind the Castrol EDGE Rankings, they calculate the attack and defence ratings of each nation. Then, by simulating the tournament over 100,000 times, and taking into account the draw groupings, the Calculator can predict how successful nations will be in their groups, whether or not they will progress to the knockout stages and, ultimately, each nation’s chance of winning the tournament.

Fans can find the Castrol EDGE Calculator on castroledge.com/euro2012, where it will be updated after each Euro 2012 game so they can see the impact of every match result on their nation’s chances.

Key insights include:

  • The Castrol EDGE Calculator shows that the strength of the current world and European champions, Spain, will help them retain the title with the highest percentage chance of winning the tournament – 21.8%.
  • Progressing from Group B, the tournament’s 'group of death', will be the Netherlands and Germany, with the Castrol EDGE Calculator showing that Portugal and Denmark will be the teams to exit the competition early. The Netherlands are second favourites to win the tournament, with a 20.8% chance of success overall – just 1% behind Spain.
  • Although they are favourites to top Group D, in order to do so England must find the strength to overcome France and Sweden, neither of whom they have ever beaten in the European Championships.
  • Hosts Poland will be satisfied with their group, despite drawing Greece, who were the surprise winners in 2004; however, they are unlikely to make their home advantage count throughout the tournament, with just an 1.5% chance of winning overall.

Former Poland goalkeeper and Castrol EDGE ambassador Jerzy Dudek said: "Like all football fans, I have my own hopes and opinions on how far countries may get in the European Championships, which is why it is so interesting to see the Castrol EDGE Calculator's predictions for the tournament, as it is based on such strong and accurate data. I can compare my opinions to these facts.

"I look forward to using it next summer to check Poland's chances!"

Castrol EDGE Global Marketing Manager, Sean Rahaley, added: "On the back of its success at the 2010 Fifa World Cup, we're bringing back the Castrol EDGE Calculator for Uefa Euro 2012 to give fans an accurate insight into which teams will have the strength to go all the way in Poland and Ukraine.

"We plan to launch more innovative Calculator tools before the tournament kicks off, and we hope that football fans look to the Castrol EDGE Calculator for their predictions now that Paul the Octopus is no longer with us!"

Team Final Position in Group Progress to Quarter-Finals Progress to Semi-Finals Progress to Final Winning the Final
Spain 1st 80.1% 53.6% 34.2% 21.8%
Netherlands 1st 69.2% 52.6% 33.5% 20.8%
Germany 2nd 58.4% 42.1% 24.3% 13.2%
England 1st 64.1% 33.8% 17.7% 8.8%
Portugal 3rd 48.5% 32.4% 17.2% 8.4%
Italy 2nd 46.9% 22.5% 10.2% 4.2%
Ukraine 2nd 49.2% 22.0% 8.6% 3.7%
France 3rd 45.0% 19.7% 8.7% 3.6%
Croatia 3rd 41.7% 18.9% 8.0% 3.0%
Sweden 4th 41.7% 17.0% 7.1% 2.8%
Czech Rep 2nd 54.0% 16.8% 6.3% 2.2%
Denmark 4th 23.9% 13.0% 5.0% 1.8%
Russia 3rd 48.4% 14.4% 5.2% 1.7%
Rep Ireland 4th 31.3% 12.5% 4.7% 1.5%
Poland 1st 56.7% 18.2% 5.9% 1.5%
Greece 4th 40.9% 10.6% 3.4% 1.0%