World Cup 2010 Analysis: Fabio Capello’s England Are Second Favourites To Reach Knock-Out Stages Behind Brazil, But Ahead Of Spain

Three Lions backed to roar through Group C...
Fabio Capello’s England side has been backed as the second most likely country to qualify for the knock-out stages of the World Cup finals, with only five-time winners Brazil ranked ahead of them.

To coincide with this summer’s tournament in South Africa, Castrol have released the Castrol FIFA World Cup™ Predictor, which measures past team and player performance based on every international match in the last 10 years to calculate the attack and defence ratings of each team competing in the tournament.

The system then simulates the tournament a staggering 100,000 times, before calculating each country’s chances of progressing through the competition.

Goal.com UK took a look at the results, and plucked these statistical gems for analysis...

England | Set to destroy Group C

Chance of progressing
Finishing as group winners
Third place finish
Bottom of the group
90.4%
65.1%
7.5%
2.1%
Fabio Capello's side are expected to run-away with Group C, according to the Castrol Rankings, progressing to the knock-out stages 90.4 per cent of the time.

Although the Three Lions will be without their captain, Rio Ferdinand, history is very much on England's side, and they have been heavily backed to advance.

USA are the second favourites from the group, with the Americans given a 40.5 per cent chance of progressing, with the liklihood of winning the group rated at 26.6 per cent.

Algeria and Slovenia are tipped to struggle in the group, although the Europeans edge the African side in terms of will finish third.

Algeria are expected to finish at the foot of the table, having recorded a statistic of 51.1 per cent, with only a 3.2 per cent chance of progressing to the knock-out stages of the tournament.
Brazil | Favourites to progress

Chance of progressing
Finishing as group winners
Third place finish
Bottom of the group
91.8%
70.6%
7.3%
0.9%
If you were impressed by England's statistics, then brace yourselves for  Brazil's.

Despite being planted in a group alongside Cristiano Ronaldo's Portugal, and Didier Drogba's Ivory Coast, the five-time winners have calculated chance of progession of a whopping 91.8 per cent!

The chance of the Brazilians finishing at bottom of Group G is minimal, and as such hold a likelihood of just 0.9 per cent.

But Ronaldo's side shade Drogba's in terms of making the knock-out stages, with Portugal set at 51.7 per cent, and Ivory Coast on 51.1 per cent.

This of course does not bode well for the North Koreans, who are backed at just 5.4 per cent to progress altogether, and a 77.1 per cent chance of finishing last in the group.

Italy | Reigning champions

Chance of progressing
Finishing as group winners
Third place finish
Bottom of the group
84.9%
53.0%
13.9%
1.2%
As for the current holders Italy, they too are unsurprisingly backed to progress to the later stages of the tournament.

Marcelo Lippi's side are backed at 84.9 per cent to advance from Group F, which sees the Azzurri compete with Paraguay, New Zealand and Slovakia.

And the South American's are very much regarded as second favourites for the group, with a 33.9 per cent chance of finishing first, and a likelihood of 74.5 per cent to advance.

Competing in what will be their second World Cup, having qualified for Spain 1982, New Zealand are the firm-favourites to fall at the first hurdle.

The Kiwis' chances of advancing to the from the group have been set at a lowly 2.3 per cent, while the statistic of 86.2 per cent of finishing last demonstrates their underdog status in this competition.

Spain | The readers favourites
Chance of progressing
Finishing as group winners
Third place finish
Bottom of the group
88.8%
68.2%
8.2%
3.1%
Recently voted as tournament favourites by Goal.com UK readers, the European champions have an 88.8 per cent chance of advancing from Group H, according to the Castrol Rankings.

Of the 100,000 simulations, Fernando Torres and co slumped to bottom spot 3.1 per cent of the time.

Chile are the second favourites from the group, with their chances of finishing runners-up calculated at 28.7 per cent, with an overall progression statistic of 40.4 per cent.

Honduras, one of the potential surprise packages of the competition, have been given a 34.4 per cent chance of advancing to the knock-out stages.

The Central American's are likely to battle to avoid fourth spot with Switzerland, with Europeans totalling a 30.5 per cent chance of finishing third, compared to Honduras' rating of 30.7 per cent.

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