Premier League Betting: Aston Villa 5/2 to be relegated after play-off final victory
Dean Smith Aston Villa celebrate
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Dean Smith's men secured their place back in the top tier of English football at Wembley on Monday and the bookmakers think they will avoid the drop

Aston Villa secured promotion to the Premier League on Monday with a 2-1 win over Derby County in the Championship play-off final.

Dean Smith’s side erased the heartbreak of losing in last year’s Wembley showpiece and ended a three-year stay in the second tier. Having confirmed their spot in the top-flight, bet365 go 5/2 (3.50) that they return to the Championship immediately.

Steve Freeth of bet365 said: “Four of the last five Championship play-off winners have gone straight back down, but we think Villa could be capable of bucking that trend.”

Anwar El Ghazi Aston Villa Derby play-off final

Indeed, only Huddersfield Town have gone up via the play-offs and managed more than one season in the Premier League in that period, although their tenure ended this term as they amassed just 16 points on the way to finishing bottom.

The 5/2 (3.50) price puts Villa fifth in the betting to occupy one of the three relegation spots. Fellow promoted sides Sheffield United and Norwich are 4/6 (1.67) and 10/11 (1.91), respectively. Despite finishing in the top two of the Championship, the pair are seen as much more likely to make an immediate return to the Championship according do the odds compilers.

Burnley are available at 6/4 (2.50) after winning eight and drawing four of their final 19 matches, with Brighton 2/1 (3.0) shots to go down ahead of Graham Potter’s first season in charge of the Seagulls following the firing of Chris Hughton.

Mason Mount, Jack Grealish, Aston Villa vs Derby

The online bookmaker go just 3/10 (1.30) that Aston Villa stave off relegation although it is 1/6 (1.16) that they finish in the bottom half. Each of Villa’s previous five seasons in the Premier League saw them finish 15th or lower.

A top-half finish is available at 4/1 (5.0) whilst an unlikely top six spot can be backed at 50/1 (51.0) with bet365. Only Ipswich have ever won the play-off final and finished inside the top six the following season, a feat they achieved in 2000-01.

It is 80/1 (81.0) that the Villans make a spectacular return to Champions League football with a top four finish, having not played in Europe’s premier club competition since 1982-83, with a maiden Premier League title priced at 1500/1 (1501.0).

Odds correct at the time of publish. Please gamble responsibly.

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Aston Villa

form

All
LIV 2 - 1 AVL
L
AVL 3 - 1 FUL
W
AVL 0 - 2 TOT
L
NEW 1 - 1 AVL
D
AVL 0 - 0 WOL
D
SHU 1 - 0 AVL
L
LEE 0 - 1 AVL
W
AVL 1 - 2 LEI
L
BHA 0 - 0 AVL
D
AVL 1 - 0 ARS
W
Derby County

form

All
DER 0 - 1 NOR
L
REA 3 - 1 DER
L
DER 2 - 0 LUT
W
STO 1 - 0 DER
L
DER 2 - 2 BRE
D
DER 0 - 1 MIL
L
BAR 0 - 0 DER
D
COV 1 - 0 DER
L
CAR 4 - 0 DER
L
DER 1 - 1 NOT
D
Head to Head
20 Matches (2 Draws)
13 Total wins 5
9 Home wins 5
4 Away wins 0
Last 5 Matches
3 Wins
1 Draw
1 Wins
AVL 2 - 1 DER
AVL 4 - 0 DER
DER 0 - 3 AVL
AVL 1 - 1 DER
DER 2 - 0 AVL
10 Goals Scored 4
Games Over 2.5 Goals 3 / 5
Both Teams Scored 2 / 5
Team Comparison
  • Attack
  • Defence
  • Distribution
  • Discipline
Player Comparison

Match Facts

  1. Derby lost both of their Championship meetings with Aston Villa this season by an aggregate score of 0-7 (0-3 home, 0-4 away).
  2. Aston Villa have won six of their last nine matches against Derby (all in league competition), losing just once in this run, a 0-2 defeat in December 2017.
  3. The last Championship playoff final to see both sides score was West Ham’s 2-1 win over Blackpool back in 2012 – each of the last six has seen at least one side fail to find the back of the net.
  4. This is only the sixth second-tier play-off final between the teams finishing 5th and 6th in the division that season and the first since 2005, when West Ham won 1-0 against Preston.
  5. Aston Villa are the first side to reach back-to-back playoff finals in the second tier since West Ham in 2004 (runners up) and 2005 (winners). The last side to lose consecutive playoff finals at this level was Leicester City in 1992 and 1993.
  6. Aston Villa have lost five of their last six in all competitions in matches played at Wembley Stadium, with their only victory in this run coming back in April 2015 versus Liverpool in an FA Cup semi-final, with goals from Christian Benteke and Fabian Delph securing a 2-1 win.
  7. Derby are participating in their fourth second-tier play-off final, losing two (1994 and 2014) and winning one (2007) of their previous three.
  8. Only Middlesbrough, Newcastle United, Sunderland and Swindon Town have ever lost three straight games at Wembley without scoring – Aston Villa have lost 0-4 to Arsenal and 0-1 to Fulham in their last two games there.
  9. The team finishing sixth in the Championship have been promoted via the play-offs in just one of the last 13 seasons, with Blackpool beating Cardiff City in the 2010 final.
  10. Aston Villa striker Tammy Abraham has scored four Championship goals (including play-offs) against Derby County – he has only netted more against Nottingham Forest (5).
  11. Aston Villa boss Dean Smith will be taking charge of his first playoff final as a manager – he appeared in two such matches as a player, ending on the losing side for Leyton Orient in both 1999 (v Scunthorpe) and 2001 (v Blackpool) in fourth tier matches.
  12. Harry Wilson has been involved in eight goals in his last 10 Championship matches for Derby (6 goals, 2 assists – including play-offs), and has scored 16 Championship goals this season – seven more than any other Rams player.
  13. Should Derby win promotion, their tally of 74 points in the regular season would be the fewest by a side promoted to the Premier League since Crystal Palace in 2012-13 (72 points).
  14. Excluding the goalless 2017 final between Huddersfield and Reading, 14 of the last 15 occasions a team has scored first in a second-tier play-off final has seen them go on to win promotion, with the exception being Cardiff City against Blackpool in 2010 (lost 2-3).
  15. The two players to win the most fouls in the Championship this season (including play-offs) are Aston Villa’s Jack Grealish (158) and Derby’s Harry Wilson (113).
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