Steve Clarke’s side have picked up just one win since September 2023, but the 0-0 draw against Portugal in their last game suggests they may be about to turn a corner.
The Scots made a blistering start to European Championship qualifying, winning their opening five matches. However, their form faltered just before the tournament, and they crashed out in the group stages after picking up a solitary point. A 1-0 defeat against Hungary in their final game of the tournament rounded off a miserable campaign.
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Scots Yet to Bounce Back From a Difficult Euro 2024
When Scotland defeated Luis De La Fuente’s side 2-0 back in March 2023, there was a wealth of excitement surrounding the national team. A 3-1 friendly loss to England, followed by a 2-0 defeat to Spain signalled the start of Scotland’s downturn.
Steve Clarke’s men haven’t won a competitive match since their 3-0 victory over Cyprus 13 months ago. They have played 16 matches since then, including friendlies, and only managed to conjure up a single victory against Gibraltar.
Over that 16-game period, the Scots managed to score an average of just 1.06 goals per game, 1.13 less than they have conceded. Scotland have faced some challenging opponents over that period. However, losses to Northern Ireland and Hungary, along with a draw with Finland, have been bitterly disappointing.
The Scots have talent in their ranks that could help bring an end to this woeful run. Scott McTominay has enjoyed a solid start in Serie A since making the switch to Napoli. Billy Gilmour has also been getting regular playing time under Antonio Conte.
Scotland’s Home Record Offers Hope
Steve Clarke’s side were the worst-performing side at Euro 2024. They have the joint-lowest points tally, the most goals conceded, and the worst goal difference. Scotland fans were hopeful of emerging from the group stages of a major tournament for the first time in their history.
Just like Scotland, Croatia also had a difficult time at the Euros in Germany. Their tally of two points wasn’t enough for them to secure a place in the knockout stages, just two years after advancing to the World Cup semi-finals in Qatar. In contrast to their Friday night opponents, Zlatko Dalic’s side have bounced back by performing in the Nations League.
Despite recent setbacks, Scotland’s home record in competitive matches offers hope. Since Steve Clarke took over in 2019, the team have played 24 competitive matches in front of their own fans and have only tasted defeat on four occasions. Two of those losses came in Clarke’s first six months in charge.
Scotland boast a solid defensive record in their last 20 competitive home matches. They have conceded just 16 goals in those outings, with an average of 0.8 per game. Clarke’s team have also scored in 18 of those 20 matches, so backing them to earn at least a point seems like a solid bet here.
Scotland last hosted Croatia in the qualifiers for the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, winning 2-0 on that occasion.