and data from last season indicates that this trend is consistent.
Fulham's win against Brentford on Monday night, secured by two injury-time goals from Harry Wilson, perfectly illustrated this trend. The 2-1 win at Craven Cottage was the fifth latest turnaround win in the history of the Premier League. The latest-ever comeback win was Chelsea’s 4-3 triumph over Manchester United at Stamford Bridge last season, in which the Blues scored the goal to make it 3-3 at the 99:19 mark. The late goals can provide punters with an opportunity.
Market | Odds |
|---|---|
Brentford vs Bournemouth - Goal Scored Between 75-90 (Includes Stoppage Time) | |
Brighton vs Manchester City - Goal Scored Between 75-90 (Includes Stoppage Time) |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Stoppage Time Goals on the Rise
Since the start of the 2022/23 season, there has been an average of 0.68 goals scored after the 75th minute in a Premier League match. This is a 0.08 increase on the three campaigns prior.
Forty-eight percent of Premier League matches this season have seen a goal scored in the 75th minute or beyond. On matchday 10, 10 of the 27 goals scored in England’s top flight came during this period. That means that 37% of the weekend’s goals were scored in just 23.5% of the game, if we account for an average of eight minutes of stoppage time.
The sample size for the current season is small, with less than a third of the Premier League season completed. However, there was also a significant increase in late goals during the last campaign, suggesting this trend will continue.
Additionally, last season saw an average of 0.27 goals scored after the 90th minute, which is more than double the 0.13 second-half injury time goals per game scored in the 2022/23 season. The current campaign has seen an average of 0.25 goals scored after 90 minutes, in line with the increase we saw last term.
The Bees Falter in the Final Minutes
Fulham’s late two quick goals against Brentford means they have now scored three goals in injury time this season, the joint-most in the Premier League. Bournemouth, another team that have netted three goals in second-half stoppage time, are set to face Brentford.
The Bees have conceded four goals beyond the 90th minute. Additionally, they have conceded five goals in the 81st minute or later in their last six Premier League matches, and our featured bet for this game has landed in four of those matches.
Manchester City matches have seen the joining-most goals after the 80th minute, with eight in their opening 10 games. Pep Guardiola's side have been struggling to keep clean sheets and relying on their attack to help them win. Their sustained periods of possession often pay dividends in the form of goals in the latter stages.
In four of their last six Premier League matches, a goal has been scored within the final 10 minutes of regulation time, including stoppage time. They face Brighton this weekend and there should be late goals once again. Three goals have been scored after the 80th minute in the Seagulls’ last two competitive games at the Amex.