After a transfer to Barcelona or PSG seemed inevitable, it appears Nico Williams could be staying at Athletic Club for the 2024-25 season. Athletic are reportedly offering Williams a significant salary increase after his glittering performance in Spain’s Euro 2024 triumph.
- Only the Madrid clubs conceded fewer expected goals last season.
- Nico Williams ranked in the 93rd percentile in progressive carries.
- Williams had 11 assists in La Liga in 2023-24.
| La Liga Outright Market | Athletic Bilbao Odds |
|---|---|
Winner | |
Winner without Real Madrid and Barcelona | |
Top 4 Finish |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Athletic Have Something To Build On
Athletic finished fifth last season and were eight points ahead of sixth. Their expected goal difference was comfortably in the top five. Only Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid conceded fewer expected goals – Los Blancos were the only team to concede fewer actual goals.
Nico Williams had 11 assists last season and followed up with a spectacular Euros. He registered 0.30 expected assists per 90 as Spain won the competition, earning a place in the Team of the Tournament alongside five of his compatriots.
The future is undeniably bright for Spain, and the 22-year-old is ascending to become one of the biggest stars in world football. With Girona unlikely to replicate their third-placed finish from last season, there will be a fierce battle for the final top-four place alongside Real Madrid, Atletico, and Barcelona. Athletic Club are the joint favourites for that spot with Real Sociedad – they are both priced at 2.75 at Betway.
Keeping Williams Elevates Athletic’s Ceiling
Heading into his age-22 season, Williams is only going to get better. He tormented some of the world’s best defenders in the Euros, and Athletic Club’s unique model means there would be no path to directly replace him if he left for Barcelona, PSG, Arsenal, or Chelsea.
While Real and Barcelona are a long way clear of the rest, Athletic finishing in third isn’t exactly far-fetched. Atletico have lost Alvaro Morata. Girona will be tested by the return of the Champions League. Real Sociedad sold Robin Le Normand to Atleti and ranked in the bottom half in expected goals generated last season.
It’s not unrealistic to see Athletic finishing third in 2024-25 if they manage to retain Williams. Sizeable wages are viable in their model because of how little they spend on transfer fees, so competing with Barcelona and PSG on that front is plausible.
We think the 2.75 on a top-four finish and 6.00 to win the league without Real and Barcelona are both appealing bets if they manage to keep Williams. His production last season is just a taster of what’s to come – don’t be surprised if he leaps into the top 10 in expected goals plus expected assists after ranking 38th last season.