Remarkably, only six points separate Genoa, sitting in 13th place, from the foot of the table. This slim margin is unparalleled across Europe's top five leagues.
In recent weeks, the dynamics have changed significantly, largely due to the inspiring form of Genoa and Lecce, sparked by recent managerial changes.
With eight teams poised to battle against relegation, Italy’s top flight landscape provides numerous intriguing opportunities for fans and bettors.
| Serie A: Relegation | Odds |
|---|---|
Venezia | |
Monza | |
Hellas Verona | |
Lecce | |
Cagliari | |
Genoa | |
Parma | |
Como |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Viera has rejuvenated ‘Il Grifone’
Our in-house model projects that, like last season, 36 points would be enough to be saved in Serie A.
This will be one of the highest tallies since 2020/2021, but still short of the famous 40-point mark often considered a safe zone.
When Patrick Vieira took the reins at Genoa, he inherited a team lacking confidence, goals and very close to the relegation zone. However, under the former Crystal Palace manager, the Grifone have embarked on an impressive unbeaten run, collecting six points over four games.
Vieira's tactical acumen has been instrumental in structuring Genoa's defense, evident in their recent 0-0 draw against AC Milan at the San Siro. Genoa’s streak of six unbeaten games in Serie A has only been bettered once in their recent history, back between December 2023 and January 2024.
Despite a shortage of goals, with the team not scoring in back-to-back matches, Vieira's practical approach has revitalized the squad, now in 13th place with 16 points, mirroring their total at this stage last season.
Lecce’s transformation under Giampaolo
In a similar fashion, Lecce have experienced a renaissance under new boss Marco Giampaolo. The Salentini have acquired seven crucial points from their last four outings, including a stoppage-time equaliser against Juventus. Lecce’s last success, a hard-earned victory over struggling Monza, epitomized their newfound spirit.
Despite grappling with injuries — notably in defense — Lecce showcased resilience. Their performance was bolstered by the Albanian youngster Medon Berisha, whose creativity and vision have made him a revelation in Giampaolo's setup.
A tight battle at the bottom
Eight teams find themselves embroiled in the relegation battle, with Monza and Como teetering dangerously close to the edge.
Despite showing flashes of potential, highlighted by the brilliance of players like Caprari and Maldini, inconsistency has marred Monza's campaign.
The Brianzoli currently have 11 points fewer than they did at this point last season. This is piling the pressure on head coach Alessandro Nesta, who is in his first season in Serie A. His position remains uncertain amid the mounting challenges.
For Como, navigating their inaugural Serie A season has proven more daunting than anticipated. A series of poor results and a dose of bad luck have seen them slide perilously close to the relegation zone.
Sunday's victory against Roma marked their first win since the end of September. Interestingly, based on expected goals (xG) data, Cesc Fabregas's team would sit ninth in the table, boasting at least six more points.
After a promising start, Verona have suffered a dramatic loss of form. With 39 goals conceded, the 'Scaligeri' have the second-worst defense in Europe's top five leagues, trailing only Wolves.
Cagliari, under Davide Nicola’s management—known for orchestrating historic last-gasp survivals with Crotone, Salernitana, and Empoli—have a tough road ahead. With only 14 points amassed thus far, their aim is to reach at least 20 points by the halfway mark, a target they've managed only once since the 2019-20 season.
Our in-house projection tool forecasts Monza and Verona as the teams most likely to face the drop, along with Venezia.
The Lagunari have underperformed in terms of expected points (-7.28), but have three crucial 'six-pointers' against Cagliari, Empoli, and Verona ahead in the next month and a half.
Yet, the gap between the teams in the bottom eight is expected to remain tight, suggesting that relegation odds may stay above 2.00 for much of the season.