Knowing which teams are resilient can help us make better betting decisions.
| Premier League: Match Day 16 | Odds |
|---|---|
Liverpool vs Fulham: Liverpool To Win From Behind | |
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa: Draw or Aston Villa and Under 3.5 Goals | |
Bournemouth vs West Ham: Bournemouth To Score First and Draw or Bournemouth |
Odds courtesy of Betway. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
The Rescuers vs The Droppers
The defending champions Manchester City have already earned 14 points from losing positions.
While this is partially due to their poor defensive form, Pep Guardiola’s men have consistently found a way to turn games around.
For instance, last season they averaged an impressive 1.85 points per game from the 23 games where they conceded first.
However, they have trailed in two-thirds of their league games this season, and their average has dropped to 1.4 points per game. This decline partly explains why they are trailing Liverpool by eight points in the standings.
The Reds, however, haven’t dropped any points after taking the lead and have been behind just five times this season. They are maintaining an average of 1.6 points recovered per game, which is close to last season’s overall tally of 1.56.
The ability to bounce back within the same game is what sets apart strong teams from those struggling.
In the 2022/2023 season, Arsenal (with 1.33 points per game recovered), Manchester City (1.11), and Newcastle (1.08) secured spots in the Champions League.
Similarly, last campaign, Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool, the top three teams in the league, led in points recovered after conceding first, with each averaging over 1.10 points per game.
Among the top sides, Manchester United stand out for the wrong reasons, having recovered only 28 out of the 123 possible points since 2022/2023.
Relegation struggles and survival comebacks
Scoring the first goal is often rare for teams battling relegation.
Yet, Leicester stand out by recovering seven points from twelve situations where they were losing, which could make them a valuable pick for second-half goals when they travel to Newcastle on Saturday.
It’s common for relegation-threatened sides to concede the first goal, but their ability to rescue points is crucial if they hope to stay in the Premier League.
For example, last season 2023/2024, both Burnley and Sheffield United failed to win any matches and collected merely seven points combined after conceding the first goal in a match.
Luton Town, who trailed the most last season (33 times), earned 13 rescued points, but they were insufficient to save them from the drop.
Is Forest’s Form Sustainable?
Nottingham Forest have been the biggest surprise in the Premier League so far, taking the lead in 80% of their games and dropping only nine points, which has propelled them to fifth place.
However, they have struggled after conceding first, failing to secure a win and securing just one draw from five losing positions, which is the second-worst record after Southampton.
Aston Villa have struggled after mid-week games, collecting only four of the 21 points available. They might concede first again, having done so in four of their seven Premier League away matches so far.
Despite their vulnerability, Unai Emery’s side have managed to earn 11 points, ranking fourth in this regard, with an average of 1.22 points recovered—better than last season's average of 0.90.
Our in-house projection model suggests this game is expected to feature the lowest total goals of the matchday, with just 2.32. As a result, a double chance bet for the visitors combined with under 3.5 goals appears to be an appealing option.
A first bite at the ‘Cherries’
This clash is expected to feature plenty of goals, with Bournemouth showing a knack for early leads. They have taken the lead nine times so far, five of which were at the Vitality Stadium.
Andoni Iraola’s men are heavy favourites to win on Monday night. Taking the lead early would almost certainly give The Cherries another positive result, given their impressive 2.44 points (the fourth highest in the league) after taking the lead.
West Ham have fallen behind in nine matches and rescued just two points, averaging a mere 0.22 points per game from losing positions.
Betting on Bournemouth to strike first, combined with a double chance on the hosts to win or draw, can significantly boost your odds.