The country's most recent footballing legacy boasts names like Christian Vieri, Filippo Inzaghi, and Francesco Totti. However, times have changed, and the Azzurri have often found themselves searching for a talismanic striker to secure wins.
This season, however, signals a potential revival, driven by the exceptional form of two Serie A strikers, Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui.
As Italy enter the final Nations League group matches with realistic chances of qualifying for the semi-finals, Kean and Retegui's form offers plenty to consider for those who want to back Luciano Spalletti’s side.
| Nations League Winner: League A, Group 2 | Odds |
|---|---|
| France | 1.60 |
| Italy | 2.20 |
| Nations League: Outright Winner | Odds (each way: places 1-2) |
| Italy | 7.00 |
The return of ‘Made in Italy’
In the 2017-2018 Serie A season, Ciro Immobile (fourteen goals) and Fabio Quagliarella (eight goals) led the scoring charts after 12 games. This season, Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui are mirroring that performance, leading the way.
As the current campaign unfolds, Retegui has netted 11 times in Serie A, closely followed by Kean with eight goals. This has not been witnessed in seven years, suggesting a significant shift in Italy's attacking prospects.
Thanks to Giampiero Gasperini’s management at Atalanta, Retegui has evolved from a raw powerhouse into a refined striker.
His attacking metrics have significantly improved from last season, now averaging 4.68 shots per game in Italy’s top flight, which is a notable increase from 2.54 during his tenure with Genoa. Additionally, his expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes stands at 0.99, underscoring his growth into a formidable modern number nine, skilled in linking play, distributing the ball efficiently, and finishing precisely.
Kean has emerged as a versatile forward, adding depth to Italy's tactical options. Underlying metrics suggest that his season could be even more impressive than Retegui’s. Indeed, the former Juventus striker is falling short of his xG by 1.77, suggesting that his peak performance is still to come.
This dynamic attacking duo provides coach Luciano Spalletti with a level of flexibility and tactical options that the Italian national team has lacked in recent times.
Spalletti’s big dilemma
The likelihood of Moise Kean and Mateo Retegui playing together adds new dimensions to Italy’s offensive strategy, presenting coach Luciano Spalletti with an exciting challenge.
Traditionally, Italy's tactical approach hasn't favoured the use of two strikers at once, but the current circumstances require a shift in strategy.
Spalletti's strategic mindset might involve experimentation, with Retegui possibly taking a central role, while Kean is positioned either on the flanks or as a deeper-lying forward.
This tactical approach aligns with a 3-5-1-1 formation, providing the stability that allows each striker to adapt and thrive within the setup.
Yet, as the group stages of the Nations League unfold, Spalletti might find himself compelled to adopt a double-nine approach. Such tactical flexibility embodies a team poised to not only compete in the Nations League, but also build momentum for the World Cup qualifiers.
In terms of odds, bookmakers rank Italy just behind France as favourites to win their group. Italy currently sit at the top with ten points, closely followed by France with nine, and Belgium at four. Although this lead is uncertain, the competition remains tight, as Les Bleus could potentially overtake the Azzurri.
While the Nations League holds immediate importance, it also bears broader implications for Italian football.
Robust performances in this tournament will impact Italy's seeding in future World Cup qualifiers, underscoring the importance of maintaining, if not enhancing, their FIFA ranking.